SMM, July 9:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market moved broadly lower. SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum fell 0.68% and 0.65%, respectively. SHFE zinc dropped 0.77%, SHFE lead lost 0.19%, SHFE tin tumbled 1.69%, and SHFE nickel declined 0.63%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.78%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged up 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slumped 5.32%. The most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.72%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract dropped 2.63%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore edged lower, rebar lost 0.16%, and HRC closed flat at 3,294 yuan/mt. Stainless steel tumbled 2.09%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract dipped 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%.
On the overseas base metals market, as of 11:41 AM, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged higher, LME aluminum fell 0.18%, and LME lead lost 0.16%. LME zinc rose 0.43%, LME tin gained 0.12%, and LME nickel declined 0.49%.
In the precious metals sector, as of 11:41 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.38% and COMEX silver dropped 0.8%. On the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold fell 1.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 4.81%.
Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract dropped 2.46%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract slumped 3.35%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index futures contract dropped 7.38% to 2,358 points.
Selected futures midday market data as of 11:41 AM, July 9:
Spot Market and Fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,475 yuan/mt, down 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,375 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for the sixth consecutive day, primarily due to persistently low arrivals...
Macro Front
China:
[National Bureau of Statistics: June CPI Rose 1% YoY, PPI Rose 4.1% YoY, PPI YoY Growth Slightly Widened] NBS data showed that in June 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.0% YoY. Specifically, the index rose 1.0% in urban areas and 0.8% in rural areas; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.5%; consumer goods prices rose 1.1%, and service prices rose 0.8%. In H1, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY. In June, national CPI fell 0.3% MoM, with urban areas down 0.4%, rural areas down 0.3%; food prices down 0.4%, non-food prices down 0.3%; consumer goods prices down 0.6%, and service prices flat. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in June 2026, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY but fell 0.3% MoM. The purchasing price index for industrial producers rose 6.4% YoY and fell 0.2% MoM. In the first half of the year, the PPI rose 1.5% YoY, and the purchasing price index rose 2.4% YoY. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the NBS, interprets the CPI and PPI data for June 2026.
[PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan today)]The PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, while 288.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP)
US dollar:
As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 100.95. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that officials are increasingly concerned about high inflation. Although officials worried that broadening price increases might warrant rate hikes, they followed Fed Chairman Warsh's lead and released a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for hiking rates immediately. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation would pull back toward the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would remain persistently elevated. "Almost all" of those holding the latter view believed rate hikes would be necessary in such a scenario. The minutes said, "Participants generally judged that information received during the intermeeting period indicated that upside risks to price stability remained elevated, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had diminished." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. (Jin10 Data APP)
According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-bp hike is 31.0%. By September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 17.0%. (Jinshi Data APP)
Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin will attend hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on July 14 and 15, respectively, to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. According to an announcement on the Senate Banking Committee's official website, Warsh will appear before the committee at 10:00 a.m. US Eastern Time on July 15 for a hearing centered on the US Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, which will be webcast live. Previously, the House Financial Services Committee had issued a notice on June 22 confirming that Warsh would testify at the same topic hearing before the House at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 14. This hearing holds significant reference value for the market. As the Fed Chairman makes his first public testimony on monetary policy to Congress, Warsh's language and stance will provide crucial clues for the outside world to assess the US Fed's policy trajectory. (Wallstreetcn)
Data:
Today will see the release of data including Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Additionally, attention should be paid to: the US Fed releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the European Central Bank releasing its June monetary policy meeting minutes; and a speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets continued to rise, extending gains from the previous two trading sessions, with US crude up 1.18% and Brent crude up 1.13%. Concerns over supply disruptions stemming from escalating Middle East tensions underpinned oil prices.
The US launched strikes against Iran for a second consecutive day, as the fragile ceasefire between the two countries grew increasingly unstable, bringing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill on Thursday. Ship-tracking data showed that observable traffic on this world's most critical energy chokepoint was concentrated mainly along routes near the northern part of the waterway, approved by Iran, while the US-backed Oman corridor remained sluggish. Among large vessels, only one US-sanctioned very large crude carrier (VLCC) sailed out of the Persian Gulf, while an Iranian-flagged container ship was spotted in the strait. However, it cannot be ruled out that some vessels may have transited the strait with their transponders turned off. This was in sharp contrast to the recent daily activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from Kpler showed that in the three weeks since the US and Iran reached a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the daily average commodity vessel crossings stood at 34, peaking at 59 on June 24, compared with fewer than 20 on most days during the war. (Jin10 Data APP)
Goldman Sachs expects that if the 60-day negotiations continue and the Iran oil waiver is reinstated, Persian Gulf oil flows will resume by the end of July, by which time the Strait of Hormuz will need to increase throughput by 6.6 million barrels per day. If negotiations break down and tanker attacks escalate, while the US may impose a blockade on Iranian oil, Persian Gulf flows could decline further. (Jin10 Data APP)
Spot Market Overview:
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
![SHFE/LME Price Ratio Rises, Market Continues High Offers; Buyers and Sellers in Tug-of-war [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CJXfS20251217171710.jpg)
![Sluggish trading atmosphere, holding prices firm supports the narrowing of North China discounts [SMM North China Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XTMPt20251217171713.jpeg)
![Six Consecutive Inventory Declines Stimulated a Premium Rebound, Trading This Week Significantly Better Than Last Week [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/oeWiG20251217171714.jpeg)
