The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs and Probed 410,000, Spot Market Trading Sluggish [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Jul 6, 2026 Tin Midday Review

The tin market in and outside China consolidated at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at CNY402,800/mt and closed the morning session at CNY409,610/mt, up 2.90%. On the LME, three-month tin was last reported at $52,860/mt, up 3.94%.

On the macro front:

(1) The PBoC said in an announcement on Jul 3 that it conducted a CNY1 trillion 3-month (91-day) outright reverse repo on Jul 6, using a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price bidding model. The maturity date is Oct 5, 2026, postponed if it falls on a holiday. CNY800 billion of same-tenor outright reverse repos mature this month, so the operation resulted in a net injection of CNY200 billion, ending three consecutive months of reduced rollover. This smoothly offset the pressure from government bond issuance and maturing medium-term funds, keeping market liquidity reasonably ample.

(2) The State Council publicly released the “Beautiful China Construction 15th Five-Year Plan” (State Council Document [2026] No. 20) on Jul 3. The plan clearly sets the steady advancement of carbon peaking as a core task, implements a proactive national strategy to address climate change, fulfills nationally determined contribution targets, and fully implements a dual control system for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity. It coordinates industrial green transformation and ecological governance, and promotes the low-carbon transformation of energy-intensive industries such as non-ferrous metals and electronics manufacturing over the medium and long term.

(3) Micron today officially announced the completion of its Hiroshima plant expansion in Japan, with a total investment of 1.5 trillion yen to increase HBM high-bandwidth memory production lines. AI server memory supporting capacity continues to expand globally. The plant is expected to begin shipments around the summer of 2028.

Spot market side, overall morning trading was mediocre, with sluggish sentiment. Suppliers actively quoted prices in line with market conditions, but as futures prices surged again and approached the CNY410,000/mt level, fear of high prices among buyers intensified. Only a few orders for essential needs were transacted sporadically during the day. Downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines, mostly preferring to wait for prices to pull back or stabilize before purchasing.

In summary, the US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite rebounded. In terms of capital flows, gold, tin, and coal were the top three sectors for inflows today. Bulls added positions, driving futures prices higher. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the short term, with the price center likely to test higher. The PBoC's outright reverse repo operations achieved a net injection, ending three consecutive months of contraction, and effectively alleviated mid-year liquidity pressure. Micron's overseas expansion plan reconfirms the long-term logic of AI computing power and memory hardware chain demand for high-end electronics manufacturing, underpinning positive long-term expectations on both the macro and industry fronts.