July 6, 2026, SMM Tin Morning Brief:
On the night of July 3, the most-traded SHFE tin 2608 contract continued to rally, closing at 413,170 yuan/mt, up 3.8%. The contract rallied throughout the session, with open interest surging by 4,044 lots to 41,600 lots.
Macro:
(1) Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chip maker, is about to release its Q2 results on Tuesday. According to an average analyst forecast, preliminary operating profit is expected to be 84.3 trillion won (approximately $55.1 billion), an 18-fold increase from a year earlier and exceeding the full-year profit for 2025. Revenue is expected to rise 127% to a record 169 trillion won. Since June, chip stocks have seen sharp pullbacks several times due to concerns about intensified competition, potential overcapacity, and returns on massive AI investment. This has further elevated the importance of Samsung’s results, and with market expectations already running high, there is very limited room for disappointment. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial, said: “Samsung’s results come at a time when the market is questioning both the supply and demand sides of the memory chip investment thesis. If the results come in close to market expectations, it will help settle the debate, which would be favorable for Samsung.”
(2) Yin Hejun, Party Secretary and Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, pointed out the need to deeply integrate technological and industrial innovation and accelerate the construction of a modernized industrial system. He called for accelerating technological transformation and upgrades in traditional industries and large-scale equipment renewal, optimizing industrial layout, strengthening standard leadership, and enhancing internationalization. He urged faster cluster development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and the low-altitude economy. He emphasized forward-looking deployment in future industries, focusing on promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied AI, and sixth-generation mobile communications as new economic growth drivers. He stressed reinforcing the primary role of enterprises in technological innovation, speeding up the cultivation of technology-leading enterprises, strengthening enterprise-led industry-academia-research integrated innovation, and supporting enterprises in leading the formation of innovation consortia. He highlighted accelerating the efficient application of major scientific and technological achievements, building concept validation and pilot-scale testing platforms, and ramping up the development and sharing of application scenarios. He called for faster development of science and technology finance, supporting capital to invest early, invest small, invest long-term, and invest in hard technology.
(3) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote an article on July 5 stating, “This adjustment to the energy-saving and new-energy vehicle tax policy marks a landmark step in the reform of equal rights for gasoline and electric vehicles in China’s auto industry, and represents a key tax system optimization as the new energy industry fully moves from a policy support phase into a market-driven maturity stage.” He believes the reform is conducive to the trend of pure electrification and fully aligns with the long-term direction of high-quality development and market-oriented balanced growth in the automotive industry. Cui said that equal rights for oil-fueled and electric vehicles is not a one-size-fits-all equation, but rather establishing a vehicle tax system with matching rights and responsibilities and fair tax burdens based on technical attributes, emission characteristics, and usage scenarios.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tightness in tin ore supply remains unresolved, but marginal improvement signals are increasing. In July, most smelters will focus on stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect is deepening, with coexisting rigid demand support and high-price suppression. Downstream purchases are cautious, conducted based on orders.
Spot market: Last Friday, sporadic orders from downstream solder and electronic terminal enterprises that had been held back by high prices were released after tin prices pulled back. Rigid-demand price-fixing emerged in both east and south China, and some midstream processors took the opportunity of low prices to restock small batches. Circulations among traders were also more active than earlier in the week. Most traders recorded scattered deals, with a few reporting around 10-20 mt.
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