After the catch-up decline, it entered wild swings, with the tug-of-war between tight ore support and macro suppression intensifying [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, July 6, 2026

Market Recap: The most-traded SHFE tin contract shifted last week from a sharp catch-down phase to a wild-swings recovery stage, largely driven by macro sentiment and geopolitical factors, with a fluctuation range of approximately 387,000 yuan/mt to 400,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, the market digested the pressure from overseas rate hike expectations and a strong US dollar, with the rebound momentum mostly stemming from bear position covering, leading to a somewhat sluggish trend. By the end of the week, as US ADP and non-farm payrolls data both came in surprisingly weak, the US dollar index plunged to its largest drop in nearly three months, tightening trades cooled abruptly, and tin prices regained upward momentum, testing the round-number level of 400,000 yuan/mt again. In the tin ingot spot market, overall trading was mediocre last week. The pent-up purchasing and restocking demand that accumulated when prices plunged earlier had been released in a concentrated manner. Despite attempts at a rebound in tin prices mid-week, downstream and end-user enterprises showed a clear lack of willingness to chase higher prices amid the off-season, mostly opting to consume existing inventories and make hand-to-mouth purchases as needed. The overall trading atmosphere turned sluggish under the suppression of high prices.

Market Outlook:

From a global macro perspective, Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated "price stability first" and scrapped forward guidance, with policy uncertainty fueling market volatility. Although the surprisingly weak June non-farm payrolls data pushed back rate hike expectations and the US dollar index pulled back, core PCE inflation remained elevated, keeping the hawkish undertone intact. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suffered sustained heavy losses, led by declines in memory and AI chip stocks. Concerns over a retreat in AI capital spending directly hit the premium narrative of tin as an "AI solder metal," leaving overall macro sentiment bearish. China's tin market fundamentals showed a supply-demand stalemate pattern.

Overall, the tight supply of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal improvement signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production without large-scale production cuts. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder and other enterprises adopted an extremely cautious purchasing stance, where rigid demand support coexisted with high-price suppression effects. The spot market fell back into a "priced but not transacted" predicament, with slow destocking of social inventories and persistently sluggish trading. In summary, macro headwinds and bearish semiconductor sentiment dominated the futures market. Although tight ore supply and low inventories provided bottom support, tin prices repeatedly retreated quickly after hitting highs, with significant resistance above. Tin prices are expected to extend their range-bound consolidation this week. Domestically, close attention should be paid to downstream restocking appetite after price pullbacks. The market may seek a new equilibrium between macro pressure and cost support. Investors should stay cautious and wait for tangible signs of improvement on the demand side.