Published：June 29, 2026
1. Review – First Test of the 4,000-USD Mark
As feared, the falling 50-day moving average (4,468 USD) has posed an insurmountable hurdle for the price of gold in recent months. Since the last bounce off this moving average on May 12 at $4,773, the downtrend has accelerated significantly. In particular, breaking below the round $4,400 mark led to a sharp sell-off in the first week of June, bringing the price down to $4,023.
Although the subsequent recovery was swift, reaching $4,382 within a few days, the Fed’s interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference under new Fed Chair Warsh once again triggered strong selling pressure. Within just seven days, the gold price plummeted to $3,959. The psychologically important $4,000 mark could no longer withstand the selling pressure, and gold fell to its lowest level since early November 2025.
1.1 $4,000 as a Key Level
Even though price declines on the downside have recently accelerated significantly, the bears have overall made only slow progress on the downside so far. This week, the low set on March 23 was breached by $140. It took the bears about three months to achieve this! At the same time, however, the broader correction that began in late January remains unquestionably intact. Attention is now focused on the broad support zone around the $4,000 mark.
Given the sometimes panicked sentiment of the past few days, a bottoming process typical of early summer is certainly possible here. The erratic and volatile back-and-forth of recent weeks supports this view. However, considerable correction potential has now built up in the stock markets, which is likely to weigh on precious metal prices as well in the event of a significant pullback.
For now, patience remains the order of the day. Experience shows that precious metal prices often find a bottom in June or July, from which a substantial summer rally usually begins. For this to happen, however, the gold price would need to hold the $4,000 level and the silver price the $55 level. Alternatively, prices could drop another notch lower first.
2. Chart Analysis: Gold in U.S. Dollars
2.1 Weekly Chart: Bottom Formation in the Coming Days and Weeks
Gold in U.S. dollars, weekly chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview
Since reaching an all-time high of $5,602 at the end of January, the gold market has been in a healthy, yet increasingly complex, correction phase. With the recent low of $3,959, the price has now fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (from $1,615 to $5,620). The next relevant retracement levels are at $3,608 (50 %) and $3,138 (61.8 %). This makes it clear that the worst-case scenario we have repeatedly outlined—in the range around $3,500—remains valid and still cannot be ruled out.
In the short term, the weekly candles continue to slide southward along the lower weekly Bollinger Band ($3,997). However, one to a maximum of three additional weeks of strong downward pressure are likely to represent the maximum scenario for the bears’ run. Afterward, a bottoming process and the onset of a recovery—or a summer rally—are to be expected.
At the same time, after nearly five months of correction and a price decline of over 29%, the weekly stochastic oscillator is clearly in oversold territory. Against this backdrop as well, the remaining downside risk appears significantly limited over the coming days and weeks. Should the correction nevertheless continue in the broader picture, the oscillator would first have to recover. Accordingly, the odds are good that the gold price will form a bottom now or in July in the range between 3,800 and 4,000 USD.
Overall, the weekly chart remains bearish but is heavily oversold. A recovery or counter-movement is already on the horizon and could begin in July or August. In the bigger picture, however, the correction could drag on and bring new lows in the fall.
2.2 Daily Chart: New Buy Signal
Gold in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview
On a daily basis, the price of gold has lost contact with the still-slowly-rising 200-day moving average (USD 4,474) over the past three weeks. The gap widened at times to nearly 13%, underscoring the currently weak technical condition. Only a return above this closely watched moving average would significantly brighten the chart picture.
By the end of the week, however, prices had recovered noticeably and closed the week at $4,088. The recovery that has begun should initially lead to the $4,120 range and, ideally, could extend directly to around $4,220 without any major pullbacks. The positive divergence in the daily stochastic is supportive here, as the indicator no longer fully confirmed the recent low of $3,959. In addition, the oscillator clearly reached its oversold zone. This suggests that a bottoming process may already have begun.
Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that, in the course of the typical early-summer volatility, there will be further pullbacks before a sustained counter-movement can take hold.
Overall, the daily chart could thus be on the verge of a trend reversal. The daily stochastic has turned upward in the oversold zone and offers further upside potential. However, a final pullback below the $4,000 mark down to the area around $3,840 remains possible.
3. Gold Futures Market Structure
Commitments of Traders Report for the gold futures contract dated June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader
According to the weekly Commitments of Traders Report (COT Report) published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), commercial traders held a cumulative short position of 207,563 gold futures contracts at the closing price of $4,331 on June 16.
The sharp price decline of the past few weeks has not yet led commercial traders to significantly reduce their short positions. Overall, there have been hardly any notable shifts since the beginning of the year, which supports our thesis that the COMEX is increasingly losing influence.
In a long-term comparison, however, the commercial short position remains at a significantly elevated level. Based on data from the past 22 years, the CoT report should therefore continue to be interpreted negatively.
4. Gold Sentiment
Sentiment Optix for gold as of June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader
The sharp correction since late January has completely erased the previously highly euphoric sentiment. Since the low in March, sentiment indicators have been moving in the neutral, largely inconclusive range. In the worst-case scenario, the sentiment pendulum could still swing to the opposite extreme of panic and fear. However, this would require significantly lower prices, which we would currently only expect in the context of a severe stock market crash.
In summary, sentiment remains in the neutral range with an Optix value of 58. Ideally, the Optix will soon turn upward again above the 50–55 range. Otherwise, the probability of a more severe correction will increase noticeably.
5. Seasonality of Gold
Seasonality of the gold price over the last 17 years as of May 1, 2026. Source: Seasonax
Typically, after its spring correction, the gold price finds a bottom in June or July and can then recover through September. Given the recent low of $3,959 and the erratic price movements of the past few weeks, such a turning point could already be taking shape in the coming days or weeks. August, in particular, has historically shown strong performance.
Overall, the seasonal traffic light is gradually shifting from red to orange and will then turn green starting in mid-July.
6. Macro Update – The facade is still holding, but the foundation is increasingly eroding
Share of the “Magnificent 7” in the S&P 500, as of June 25, 2026. Source: The Diary Of A CEO
At first glance, the financial markets continue to appear surprisingly robust, but beneath the surface, warning signs are mounting. While the major U.S. indices are trading near their record highs, market breadth has noticeably deteriorated, and numerous former market leaders—such as Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, Palantir, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—have long been in significant correction or bear market phases.
For many of these high-flyers of recent years, the technical damage is now considerable. The fact that former growth and AI winners, as well as heavyweights from the megacap segment, have in some cases fallen sharply from their highs shows just how narrow the foundation of the still-ongoing bull market has become. As a result, the technology sector in particular—as the central driver of the boom—has now become highly vulnerable.
6.1 The Limits of the AI Boom
Free cash flow forecast for the hyperscalers, as of June 26, 2026. Source: Financelot
Even among the AI hyperscalers, the euphoria is beginning to show cracks. Valuations now appear so stretched that the gap between free cash flow and the major indices is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. At the same time, declines in rental prices for AI GPUs and in data center profit margins are already evident.
This reinforces a familiar pattern: either investments decline, revenues catch up significantly, or the market corrects. Based on current evidence, the third scenario appears increasingly plausible. This is because the AI boom thrives not only on technological strength but also on extreme capital investment over a very short period of time. If competitive pressure from China puts additional strain on margins and demand does not grow at the same pace, the hyperscalers will likely have to scale back their spending sooner or later.
6.2 Speculation on Credit Drives the Markets
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP at an all-time high, as of June 6, 2026. Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors
At the same time, margin debt as a percentage of GDP has reached a new all-time high of over 4%, surpassing even the levels seen in August 2021, March 2000, and July 2007. Historically, such extreme levels have always been followed by sharp pullbacks—not because a chart predicts the future, but because high leverage makes those who have to sell at the wrong moment particularly vulnerable.
This is precisely where the real danger lies: as long as prices rise, debt acts as a catalyst. As soon as the market turns, that same leverage becomes a risk factor and amplifies the downward movement. In an environment where market breadth is already crumbling, this can significantly intensify the momentum of a sell-off.
6.3 Space Speculation as a Prime Example
Most recently, the hype surrounding SpaceX’s IPO was unprecedented. It is precisely this euphoria and risk appetite in the market—combined with the stock’s extreme valuation—that make it a prime example of a speculative bubble, as the highly ambitious visions of the future, AI fantasies, and space dreams are far ahead of current business realities.
An IPO with an implied valuation of around 2 billion USD and a revenue multiple of about 100 appears to be barely supported by fundamentals. As long as the bulk of the narrative rests on Starlink and projections reaching far into the future—such as Mars colonies, asteroid mining, or space-based AI—the risk-reward ratio remains massively skewed and highly unfavorable.
6.4 Late-cycle characteristics are piling up
Boom & Bust Cycles, June 26, 2026. Source: Visual Capitalist
The narrowing market breadth, combined with a “super-IPO,” is a classic late-cycle characteristic. When only a few mega-caps and rampant speculation on credit are driving the index higher, while a broad segment of the market is already giving way and “smart money” is cashing out via IPOs, the risk of an abrupt revaluation rises significantly!
Boom-and-bust cycles are not an exceptional phenomenon, but a recurring feature of developing economies. Markets rarely move in a straight line but instead oscillate between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. Phases of strong expansion are regularly followed by excesses, rising risks, and finally a correction that resolves imbalances and lays the foundation for the next upswing.
6.5 Semiconductors as a Warning Sign
Semiconductor Index, as of June 16, 2026. Source: Creative Planning
Given the parabolic rise in semiconductor stocks, history also speaks clearly. To date, there have been only two periods in which the “Semiconductor Index” rose by more than 230% within 14 months: from December 1998 to February 2000 and from April 2025 to the present. The fact that these are precisely the only two such episodes underscores just how extraordinary—and at the same time fragile—such parabolic rises typically are.
The warnings from prominent investors are correspondingly stark. Ray Dalio warns of an environment reminiscent of earlier bubble phases, and Jeremy Grantham describes the U.S. stock markets as historically expensive in light of the AI euphoria.
6.6 Fed Under Scrutiny
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains wary of premature expectations of monetary easing. At its most recent meeting, it kept key interest rates unchanged but simultaneously raised its inflation forecasts and made it clear that the fight against inflation is not over.
Under Kevin Warsh, the central bank is also placing less emphasis on traditional forward guidance. As a result, markets will have to focus more on the data going forward, which is likely to make monetary policy expectations more volatile and reactions in the financial markets more erratic. On top of that, markets often react nervously in the first few months following a change in leadership at the Fed, as monetary policy, reaction patterns, and communication styles must first settle into a new rhythm.
It is striking, however, that markets have recently interpreted the Fed’s stance as more restrictive than its projections suggest. While higher interest rates have been priced in for the short term, the Fed’s projections for the coming years continue to point toward falling key interest rates.
6.7 Oil Remains the Pacesetter
Oil short positions at an all-time high, as of June 22, 2026. Source: Zerohedge
Of course, the oil price remains a key factor for the next phase of monetary policy. The recent easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf and the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have put pressure on the crude oil market and dampened inflationary momentum for the time being. Should this trend continue, the recent surge in inflation could potentially prove to be temporary. This would also increase pressure on the central bank to reconsider interest rate cuts later this year.
Despite the easing of tensions, however, the geopolitical situation remains extremely fragile. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could drive oil prices significantly higher at any time, thereby abruptly worsening the inflation outlook.
Therefore, the current oil oversupply should not be misinterpreted as a sign of a permanently more balanced market. The additional volumes of crude oil that have entered the market in recent weeks, the extremely low inventory levels, the still-restricted transport routes, and the ongoing shortage of refined products point more toward a temporary distortion than toward a sustainable easing of the situation. Added to this are record-high short positions. Consequently, volatility in the oil market will remain high, and another price spike is already on the horizon.
6.8 Shortages of Intermediate Goods Will Feed Through to Consumer Prices
At the same time, new bottlenecks are emerging in critical intermediate goods. Sulfur and sulfuric acid, in particular, are becoming a bottleneck for the extraction of numerous industrial metals and, consequently, for the supply of copper, nickel, uranium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. However, this is not only an issue for industry but also for inflation. When intermediate products become scarcer and more expensive, the effects are felt with a delay on investment, production, and ultimately on consumer prices.
6.9 Precious Metals as a Strategic Buffer
The bottom line is that signs of a late phase in the cycle are mounting: While the major indices continue to trade near their all-time highs and still appear strong, market breadth, credit excesses, semiconductor euphoria, AI hype, and speculative IPO fantasies are already painting a significantly more fragile picture.
Added to this are a cautious central bank, a still-volatile oil market, and rising consumer prices. The environment thus remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in direction: The facade is still standing, but the foundation is already becoming noticeably more fragile.
This is precisely why real assets should continue to play a central role in the portfolio. Although precious metals have been correcting for nearly five months and the weekly chart now shows signs of being oversold, the macroeconomic environment—marked by high debt, inflation, and political uncertainty—continues to support a gradual increase in holdings as a strategic store of value and liquidity buffer. Gold and silver are and will remain important diversifiers and provide the best long-term protection against inflation.
7. Conclusion: Gold – Bottoming Out Ahead of the Summer Rally
After more than five months of correction, the gold market is likely gradually ripe for a counter-movement or recovery. The brief dip below the round mark of $4,000 may already have marked the early-summer low. Alternatively, the bears may make one last attempt in the coming weeks to push the gold price below this psychological level. However, given the oversold weekly chart and the now more favorable seasonal trends, the odds point more toward an upside surprise.
The upcoming recovery could turn out to be a summer rally, targeting at least the range between $4,400 and $4,500. However, we are not yet convinced of a sustained breakout from the downtrend channel with prices clearly above $4,550; it is quite possible, in fact, that the correction will continue for the time being following a summer rally. This view is also supported by the increasingly fragile environment in the stock markets, which is characterized by dwindling market breadth, high credit leverage, AI hype, and speculative one-off fantasies.
Overall, the big picture remains dominated by high uncertainty, as geopolitics, oil prices, inflation, and interest rates can set the markets in motion again at any time, while consumers face increasing price pressure. This is precisely why gold and silver are indispensable strategic building blocks in a world where the facade still stands, but the foundation is increasingly eroding.
Florian Grummes
Precious Metals and Crypto Expert
www.midastouch-consulting.com
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Source: www.celticgold.de
