Refined cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt spot cargo stopped falling and rebounded. Supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW quotes fell first and then rose during the week, with the current EXW price stabilising at 385,000 yuan/mt; after the market stabilised, traders resumed offering to the market, and the spot-futures price spread continued to range from parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, boosted by related news from the DRC, downstream end-user enquiry activity rebounded slightly; weekly transactions improved marginally WoW, but most deals were driven by rigid demand with stockpiling brought forward, and a substantive recovery at the end-user level has yet to emerge. In the short term, downstream demand support remained insufficient, coupled with high industry inventory, and futures prices may mainly consolidate; the price repair in refined cobalt still needs an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it.
Intermediate products:
This week, trading in the cobalt intermediate products market was sluggish, and futures prices were largely stable overall. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the withdrawal of unexported quotas for miners in H1 2026, significantly boosting longer-term bullish sentiment. Supported by this, mainstream miners’ offers held firm around $25.5/lb, while some traders’ minimum selling price for small-lot cargoes stayed near $24/lb. At present, valuations in the cobalt salt market were running at low levels; based on back-calculations from cobalt salt spot prices, the raw material purchase price acceptable to downstream smelters was only around $23/lb. The price spread between sellers and buyers was significant, and actual deal-making remained in stalemate. In the short term, demand support from downstream smelting remained weak, and intermediate product prices were highly likely to continue moving sideways; a subsequent breakout and strengthening will depend on a valuation repair in cobalt salts that drives procurement demand.
Cobalt sulphate:
This week, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish, with prices stopping falling and staying stable. Supply side, primary smelters’ quotes were firm overall, and the minimum shipment price targeted by mainstream enterprises held at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by mid-week policy news from the DRC, market pessimism eased; some recycling smelters and traders became less willing to dump cargoes at lower prices, and offers for low-priced cargoes were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, no obvious recovery was seen; downstream enterprises generally followed a produce based on sales model, and product settlement mostly adopted a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid timing risks in purchase-sale price differences, most enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantive restocking was highly likely to be postponed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to mainly consolidate, and a sustained repair still needs to wait for downstream concentrated restocking demand to materialise.
Cobalt chloride:
This week, the cobalt chloride market continued to be sluggish. Enquiries increased, but actual transactions remained scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026. This news only triggered slight market fluctuations on that morning and then quickly calmed in the afternoon, indicating that the market’s focus has shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, its own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamentals perspective, resistance to a price rebound remained significant, and the market stayed relatively pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelters’ quotes began to stabilise, and some enterprises even raised quotes slightly to test the market; but although downstream enquiries increased, actual follow-through was limited. July prices will still only become meaningful for reference after representative transactions emerge. Demand side, the sentiment of “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” dominated procurement decisions; downstream players were still observing whether the current stabilisation was merely a pause in the decline or a true hit bottom, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall, prices were expected to be largely stable in the short term, with limited downside room. Cobalt salts (Co3O4):
This week, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish, with very few actual transactions. Supply side, the interim report window had passed, and previously bearish enterprises had basically completed shipments; after the release of phased selling pressure, quotes tended to stabilise this week. Demand side, although the traditional procurement window had opened, against the backdrop of prices staying under pressure, downstream cathode material plants remained mostly wait-and-see, with undiminished efforts to push for lower prices. Persistently depressed prices further suppressed upstream willingness to sell. Overall, Co3O4’s subsequent trend still needs to track the price direction on the cobalt salt side; in the short term, it is expected to mainly follow cobalt chloride and move sideways within a narrow range.
Cobalt powder and others:
This week, cobalt powder transaction prices continued to edge down to 485,000-490,000 yuan/mt. Last month, prices were under pressure and drifted lower due to concentrated shipments amid annual and quarterly report releases; as July entered the traditional off-season, wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and prices were expected to stabilise on a phased basis. Supply side, production declined significantly, with deliveries mainly under long-term contract; production cuts among small and medium-sized enterprise were more pronounced, with some enterprises’ output halving from earlier levels, and the overall market remained sluggish. Upstream cobalt carbonate shipment prices moved lower, gradually approaching the 200,000 yuan threshold, while buyers’ wait-and-see stance led to lacklustre transactions. Downstream tungsten carbide continued to drift lower, with weak support at the bottom. From July to August is the traditional off-season for cemented carbide; demand was weak and sales were under pressure, and the overall recovery of the industry chain still awaits a rebound in end-use consumption.
Ternary cathode precursor:
This week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. Nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices declined this week, while manganese sulphate prices rose slightly.
On discounts, for July and Q3 orders, as sulphate raw materials were relatively tight, some producers were willing to raise discounts. On long-term contract, annual agreements for some producers had been settled at the beginning of the year, and coefficients had not been raised; for quarterly orders, downstream acceptance of coefficient increases was also relatively weak. On spot order, nickel and cobalt payables for some consumer spot orders in June rose, but as recent nickel and cobalt salt prices were relatively weak, coefficients for July orders have not been lifted further.
On production, top-tier producers’ export orders still performed well this month, and production schedules remained at a relatively high level; however, some producers reduced operating rates due to some finished product inventories building up as downstream players controlled inventory at mid-year.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have pulled back overall recently, and pricing for subsequent new orders needs to focus on the downstream stockpiling pace in Q3.
Ternary cathode material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices rebounded slightly. Raw material side, nickel sulphate prices continued to decline, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices were largely stable, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices entered an upward phase. In terms of trading sentiment, as producers had basically completed restocking when lithium chemicals prices were at low levels amid a drifting-lower consolidation over the previous two weeks, there was no new restocking demand after this week’s rebound, and transactions were relatively sluggish. Meanwhile, as it was the beginning of the month, the market mainly executed existing orders. On discounts, there were no obvious changes recently in discounts for both the EV market and the consumer market. With the absolute prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate declining, precursor plants kept discounts firm, but cathode plants’ acceptance of discount increases was very limited. In addition, with sufficient raw material inventory and no urgent procurement needs, discounts were expected to go through a period of bargaining. Demand side, end-user orders in the EV market were good in July; the auto markets in China and Europe continued to improve, keeping demand from battery cell manufacturers high, and top-tier ternary cathode producers maintained a fast production pace. Demand in the consumer and small power markets remained mediocre.
LCO:
This week, the LCO market continued its previous trend. Changes in lithium carbonate and Co3O4 prices led to a slight decline in LCO quotes, but the price cuts did not effectively stimulate a pickup in trading volumes. Demand remained weak, with no obvious improvement in downstream orders. During the period of unstable raw material prices, buyers mostly stayed wait-and-see; actual procurement was mainly rigid spot orders, lacking large-scale deals. Currently, both sellers and buyers were in a phase of waiting for clearer direction. Subsequent market moves still need to focus on changes in upstream raw material costs and whether downstream restocking pace can show a substantive recovery.
News:
[Sinomine Resource Group: The company expects full-year lithium chemicals production and sales will not be materially adversely affected by the temporary shutdown for maintenance] Sinomine Resource Group released an announcement on abnormal fluctuations, stating that the cumulative deviation of its stock trading closing price increase exceeded 20% over three consecutive trading days. On July 1, 2026, the company disclosed the Announcement on the Temporary Shutdown for Maintenance of a Wholly Owned Subsidiary. This temporary shutdown for maintenance will, in the short term, lead to a decline in the company’s lithium chemicals production. In the long term, with robust downstream demand for lithium chemicals, after the company’s self-produced lithium concentrates arrive at the plant in succession, it can take measures such as arranging production at its lithium chemical plant and selling part of its lithium concentrates to increase production and sales. The company expects its full-year lithium chemicals production and sales will not be materially adversely affected by this temporary shutdown for maintenance. (Jin10 Data APP)
[BYD Energy Storage Signs Poland’s Largest Energy Storage Project] Recently, BYD Energy Storage and Greenvolt Power signed a cooperation agreement to jointly develop the Siedlce energy storage project in Poland. The project has a total capacity of 600MW/2.4Gwh and, once completed, will become Poland’s largest battery energy storage project. Previously, the two parties’ cumulative cooperation capacity across two local projects had reached 1.6Gwh. The Siedlce project is planned to start construction in Q3 2026 and is expected to commence commercial operation before the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP)
[The mandatory national standard “Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance Systems of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles” was officially released] On June 27, 2026, the mandatory national standard “Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance Systems of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles” (GB47955—2026), organised, formulated, and administered by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was approved and released by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of China, and is planned to be officially implemented from January 1, 2027. The release and implementation of the standard clarifies unified safety specifications for combined driving assistance systems, which is of great significance for improving the safety level of intelligent and connected vehicles and ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will earnestly carry out the promotion and implementation of the standard, strengthen access management for intelligent and connected vehicle products, further reinforce enterprises’ primary responsibility for safety, and ensure the safe and compliant application of combined driving assistance systems; meanwhile, it will accelerate the release and implementation of other mandatory national standards such as those for autonomous driving systems, promote the establishment of a sound standard testing and regulatory system for intelligent and connected vehicles, accelerate the industrialisation of autonomous driving technology, and lead the high-quality development of China’s intelligent and connected vehicle industry.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
