SMM Tin Morning Update for July 2, 2026:
On July 1, tin staged a three-stage roller coaster of "surge in the Asian session, retreat in the European session, and under pressure in the night session." At the Asian market open, LME tin surged $1,300 to $51,650/mt (+2.58%), and SHFE tin 2608 followed with a gain of 8,730 yuan to 398,090 yuan/mt, with an intraday high touching 400,480 yuan/mt, briefly approaching the 400,000-yuan mark and becoming the strongest base metal of the day. However, sentiment turned weaker in the European session. LME tin 3M closed at $50,550/mt, down $1,100 or 2.13%, with an intraday high of 51,990 and low of 50,205, almost giving back all the gains from the Asian session. SHFE tin 2608 closed the daytime session at 389,610 yuan/mt, up only 290 yuan or 0.07%, with a long upper shadow indicating bulls’ exhaustion after pushing higher. In the night session on July 1 (from 21:00 on July 1 to 02:30 on July 2), base metals generally fell, and SHFE tin 2608 was in the doldrums around 387,000–390,000 yuan. The 2608 contract has officially taken over as the new most-traded contract (open interest 41,203 lots, trading volume 260,000 lots far exceeding 2607’s 2,080 lots). LME tin was dragged down in the night session by the bloodbath in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector, and the 51,000 mark was lost after being reclaimed.
Macro:
(1) At the Warsh Sintra Forum, "inflation risks are down but still too high" and the cancellation of forward guidance caused policy uncertainty premiums to rise. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the ECB Sintra Forum on July 1 that "ensuring price stability is the priority," stating that inflation expectations have fallen over the past four weeks, reducing risks, but made clear that no forward guidance would be provided on future interest rates, and the July FOMC would have full discussions—analysts worry the "less talking" commitment could amplify market volatility. Traders slightly lowered the probability of rate hikes but still priced in at least one this year, with the US dollar index holding steady above 101, and the strong dollar’s pressure not yet over.
(2) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector was bloodbath with a -6%, with Micron and SanDisk falling over 10%, and tin's "AI solder" narrative suffered the most direct blow. Overnight, the memory/semiconductor chain collectively crashed: Micron -10.57%, SanDisk -10.62%, Applied Materials -10%, Qualcomm -11%, Intel -9%, TSMC ADR -7%, AMD -6%, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 6% in a single day. Trigger logic: Meta announced renting out idle AI computing power externally, which the market interpreted as "a slowdown in cloud providers' AI computing procurement pace + the ceiling for high hardware growth emerging," compounded by fund profit-taking at the semi-annual point, cutting positions in high-priced chip stocks. Tin is the base metal most deeply tied to semiconductors over the past year, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s -6% dealt a more direct blow to the "AI metal" premium than the US dollar at 101—tin's solo surge of 2.58% in the Asian session on July 1 was driven by the dual narrative of "AI server solder + low inventory," but once the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector crashed in the night session, the elasticity immediately reversed to hit back.
(3) Other variables: ADP added 98,000 jobs in June, below expectations (118,000), cooling employment leaving some room for Waller's "data-dependent" approach; Brent crude fell 2% to $68, with the divergence of "falling oil + rising PCE" inflation continuing;
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tight ore pattern for tin remains unresolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. Most smelters focused on stable production in June. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect deepened, with rigid demand support coexisting with high-price suppression. Downstream procurement was cautious, buying based on orders.
Spot market: Spot showed a pace of "fake gains in Asian trading, light actual transactions, and price concessions in the afternoon," typical of a high-price demand-suppressing market, with sparse downstream fixings.
[Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are based on public information, market communication, and derived from SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]
![[SMM Flash] ADNOC July Sulfur OSP Jumps to $1,000/mt, Hitting Record High](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/IHqPw20251217171709.jpg)
