Silicon Metal Market Consolidates at Lows, Wafer Prices Stabilize [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing]

SMM, July 1:

Silicon coal

prices:

This week, silicon coal market prices remained stable. Specifically, silicon pellet coal in Gansu was at 1,120 yuan/mt, and silicon mixed coal was at 1,040 yuan/mt; silicon pellet coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia was at 1,340 yuan/mt; non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was at 855 yuan/mt; and caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was at 1,400 yuan/mt.

Supply:

Affected by production resumptions at silicon plants during the rainy season in south-west China, operating rates at some coal washing plants increased, but the overall increase was relatively small.

Demand:

Recently, overall procurement demand from silicon plants increased, driven by rising operating rates, but remained mainly focused on just-in-time procurement, with most silicon plants stocking raw materials based on monthly usage standards.

Silicon metal

prices:

Yesterday, SMM assessed oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt. The most-traded contract in the futures market consolidated at 8,400 yuan/mt. Prices had strong downside support, leaving limited downside room, while insufficient bullish catalysts left the silicon metal market in a stalemate, consolidating at lows.

Production:

SMM data showed that silicon metal production in June was 358,400 mt, up 8.2% MoM and up 9.3% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production in January-June 2026 was 1.9903 million mt, up 6% YoY. In July, with increased output from silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan, production is expected to rise to over 390,000 mt.

Inventory:

Social inventory:

As of June 25, SMM statistics showed total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 556,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW. Among these, social warehouses in Xinjiang showed destocking, while those in Tianjin showed an inventory buildup (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Prices

DMC: The main transaction price was 13,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 13,250 yuan/mt. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the silicone market continued to intensify. Some monomer enterprises faced inventory pressure, and volume discounts exacerbated bearish market sentiment, driving the transaction price center continuously lower. However, with industry meetings approaching in July, the willingness of some midstream and downstream clients to make just-in-time procurement showed signs of improvement.

D4: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 14,250 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 13,500-13,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 13,650 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,500-15,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 14,750 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quoted price was 15,700-16,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 15,950 yuan/mt.

Production:

According to SMM data, China's DMC production fell approximately 11.27% MoM in June, with an overall operating rate of around 64%. In early July, driven by maintenance shutdowns at most monomer plants, the operating rate is expected to decline to a periodic low. However, as facilities gradually resume operations, supply is anticipated to increase going forward.

Inventory:

In June, overall upstream enterprise inventories still showed a slight buildup. Weak demand weighed on the sector, placing notable inventory pressure on some upstream enterprises. Nonetheless, boosted by stronger production cuts across monomer enterprises, the pace of inventory buildup narrowed.

Polysilicon

Price:

Over the weekend, quotes for N-type recharging polysilicon stood at 31.5-33.7 yuan/kg, with limited market order signing. Downstream purchase willingness remains constrained, and a bearish sentiment generally persists. However, polysilicon producers are reluctant to lower prices due to cost factors, resulting in a temporary stalemate in prices.

Production:

China's production continued to rise in July, mainly driven by production ramp-up in regions such as Sichuan and Yunnan.

Inventory:

Inventory has begun to accumulate, with limited market order signing and limited orders being fulfilled. However, after shipping, some top-tier players' inventories dropped to approximately 100,000 mt.

Wafer

Price:

Market prices for 18X wafers stood at 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Wafer prices have stopped falling and stabilized at a periodic level.

Production:

According to SMM's latest survey, multiple top-tier players cut production in July, while some integrated enterprises raised output. Overall, production fell by approximately 5%-6% MoM from June, and external toll processing volumes began to shrink.

Inventory:

Wafer inventory buildup showed a divergent trend. Top-tier players' inventories have exceeded reasonable ranges. Marginal demand for bonded zone inventory orders outside China weakened, and recent surging ocean freight rates have put wafer shipments under pressure.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price:

Current prices are 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 20,000-24,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand in China. Imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. The price for 33-inch quartz crucibles is 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and for 36-inch quartz crucibles, 6,300-6,600 yuan/piece. The price spread between different grades of 36-inch crucibles has widened, primarily due to varying proportions of inner-layer sand used, which affect crystal pulling duration. Recently, some enterprises have started to explore procurement options.

Production

Recently, semiconductor demand has improved, and the demand for high-purity quartz sand used in PV crucibles has shifted. In China, affected by the increase in wafer planned production, multiple crucible manufacturers have reported improved order demand. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises are planning production schedules based on wafer demand. Recently, the demand for high-purity quartz sand used in semiconductor applications has started to increase.

Inventory

In June, imported sand inventory continued to increase. In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafer planned production, and the overall quartz sand inventory level continued to rise.