Solar Cell Prices Continue to Rise; Module Prices Slightly Raised [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, August 13:

Solar Cell

Prices

This round of solar cell price increases gained further momentum, and prices across all sizes continued to climb. The 183 transaction price range rose to 0.28-0.3 Yuan/W; the mainstream 210N range rose to 0.28-0.29 Yuan/W; and the 210R transaction center climbed to 0.281-0.3 Yuan/W. The previous disconnect between quotes and spot transactions eased substantially, and high-priced orders have begun to be concluded in batches. Short-term cost increases, combined with the positive factor of recovering export orders, kept overall market sentiment strong; however, excessively rapid gains may gradually exhaust downstream absorption room. Going forward, it is necessary to continue tracking end-user module profit margins, cost fluctuations, and details of overseas policy implementation, and to guard against the risk of a slight correction after rapid gains.

Production

The industry's overall planned production schedule for August remains lower than in July. Many enterprises had earlier expected mediocre demand this month and reduced their production plans in advance. At the current stage, production cut plans have not yet been fully implemented, and the actual extent of subsequent operating rate execution and supply contraction still needs continuous monitoring.

Inventory

Driven by the US Section 232 policy adjustment, China's PV export orders increased significantly, and industry inventory saw a marked improvement. Among them, shipments of the 183 and 210R specifications accelerated, and inventory levels declined particularly sharply. The previously marked structural inventory divergence eased substantially, and overall inventory pressure pulled back, further solidifying the fundamental support for this round of price increases.

Module

Prices

This week, module prices in China were raised slightly. Raw material prices have recently risen in succession, and module cost support strengthened quickly. Coupled with support from the industry's cost implementation direction, module enterprises slightly raised their guidance prices this week, but downstream acceptance willingness remains low, and short-term prices are expected to remain contested. In the centralized segment, new tender projects have been limited recently, and enterprises mainly delivered previously awarded orders at stable prices, with limited changes. Currently, distributed TOPCon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.713 Yuan/W, 0.723 Yuan/W, and 0.7285 Yuan/W, respectively, while centralized TOPCon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.7065 Yuan/W, 0.7165 Yuan/W, and 0.71 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

August module production schedules are expected to edge up by 1-2 GW from July, but distributed shipment difficulty has increased recently, and some specialized module enterprises plan to lower production schedules.

Inventory

This week, China's module inventory edged up slightly. After module prices rose, downstream purchase sentiment cooled quickly, and lower trading volume hampered module shipments.

PV film

Price:

PV-grade EVA/POE materials:

Currently, the mainstream spot transaction range for China's PV-grade EVA resin is 10,200-10,350 yuan/mt, and weekly settlement prices at leading petrochemical plants edged up. Although some units were switched to PV-grade material earlier, new effective output has not yet been fully released due to the cycles required for process changeover and product parameter debugging; available supply in the market remains tight, providing short-term support to prices. Meanwhile, uncertainties remain in the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the pace of transmission of crude oil price fluctuations through the ethylene chain to the cost side of PV-grade EVA needs to be closely tracked.

PV film:

Currently, 420g transparent EVA film prices are 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film prices are 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². This month's new monthly long-term agreement prices have been settled. Leading module manufacturers have made no significant price adjustments so far this month, and order-by-order negotiated prices have shown little change recently. However, leading petrochemical plants raised settlement prices slightly this week. Going forward, the strength of cost-side pass-through to the film segment should be closely tracked. For now, short-term cost-side fluctuations remain limited, and film prices may continue to stay largely stable.

Production

This week, PV-grade EVA production pulled back slightly as some units switched to non-PV materials; film plants' August production schedules are expected to increase by about 6%-7% MoM from July.

Inventory

Petrochemical plant inventory is currently at low levels, and available spot resources in the market are limited; overall film plant inventory remains at a normal level.

PV glass:

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15.5-16.0 yuan/m², with stable glass prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16.5-17.0 yuan/m², with stable glass prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 9.0-10.0 yuan/m². This week, glass prices basically remained stable, downstream enterprises gradually completed their purchases, and overall enterprise quotes for August are 9.5 yuan/m², although some transaction prices include discounts.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 10.0-11.0 yuan/m², with stable glass prices.

Production

This week, no new furnace cold repairs or shutdowns occurred in China; furnaces that had previously reduced production continued to affect the current supply side, and glass supply continued to decline.

Inventory

China's glass inventory levels are expected to edge down. Currently, module enterprises in China and overseas are all entering the market to make appropriate stockpiling purchases. With limited supply, inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle.