In June, copper cathode production stood at 1.145 million mt, down 2.09% MoM; January–June cumulative production totaled 7.021 million mt, up 6.49% YoY. June production was 23,000 mt below the expected 1.168 million mt, mainly due to unanticipated maintenance, with the impact from maintenance at two north China smelters around 20,000 mt, causing a noticeable decline from both expected and theoretical monthly output.
Raw material side, spot copper concentrate TCs continued to fall in June, dropping below $120/dmt and remaining on a downward trend. Mid-year negotiations are now underway, and the results, originally expected on June 30, have been delayed. Copper prices retreated from highs in June, and the price spread between primary and scrap metal narrowed further. Coupled with tax invoice issues, anode plate procurement was not smooth, and some smelters faced tight procurement. The average theoretical monthly figure for smelters purchasing spot copper concentrates to produce copper cathode fell by around 600 yuan/mt from May.
July copper cathode production is expected to reach 1.166 million mt, up 1.84% MoM, with cumulative production for January–July expected at 8.187 million mt, up 5.4% YoY. The MoM increase is mainly driven by the completion of maintenance at some smelters, allowing production to gradually recover. However, three smelters will still be under maintenance in July, which will affect production. It is worth noting that a small smelter started a new production ramp-up at the end of June. Currently, SMM’s China copper cathode survey puts refined capacity at 16.3 million mt.
![Intraday spot transactions were relatively sluggish, with low activity in inquiries and offers during the mid-year period [SMM Yangshan spot copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/HfIIS20251217171709.jpg)
