Policy Impacts

Based on two core assumptions, SMM has calculated China’s supply of cobalt intermediate products (including supplementary high-cobalt recycled feedstock) for June–December 2026 and full-year 2027:

1. Market statistics show that as of May 2026, mining enterprises have only paid advance payments for cobalt intermediates equivalent to roughly 32,000 metric tons of cobalt metal within the DRC. Factoring in a transit period of over three months for shipments from the DRC to China and volumes of cobalt resources designated for other overseas destinations, we assume China’s imports of cobalt intermediates will reach 46,000 metric tons of cobalt metal from June to December 2026, alongside domestic primary output of 500 metric tons. For 2027, we assume mining firms will allocate 80% of their 87,000-metric-ton cobalt intermediate quotas to China, translating to imports of approximately 70,000 metric tons of cobalt metal plus domestic primary production of 1,000 metric tons.
2. Favorable economic margins have driven a sharp surge in China’s recycled cobalt output this year. High-grade recycled cobalt that can substitute for primary cobalt intermediates is factored in as supplementary feedstock: such recycled material will add 18,000 metric tons of cobalt metal supply between June and December 2026, and 36,000 metric tons in 2027.

China’s total demand for cobalt intermediates (including supplementary high-cobalt recycled feedstock) stands at around 58,000 metric tons of cobalt metal for June–December 2026, representing a mild surplus of 6,000 metric tons. This surplus will mainly emerge after August 2026 amid mass arrivals of intermediate cargoes at Chinese ports. For 2027, total demand for the same product category is estimated at 105,000 metric tons of cobalt metal, with a slight supply surplus of 3,000 metric tons.

However, this projected surplus is subject to notable uncertainties: First, after securing export approvals, mining operators may curtail circulating volumes to cap cobalt intermediate prices, which would keep the market relatively tight. Second, export approval procedures in the DRC remain sluggish, meaning miners may fail to fully utilize their baseline export quotas in the coming periods. Should actual import volumes fall short of forecasts, the domestic market will face a supply crunch.