Rare Earth Oxide Prices Rise in June, Momentum Slows as Production Cuts Fall Short

SMM, June 30: Pr-Nd oxide prices rose overall in June. The initial upward momentum stemmed mainly from strong market expectations of large-scale production cuts and shutdowns at scrap recycling enterprises—industry participants expected this segment to reduce Pr-Nd oxide output by more than 1,000 mt, and the tight supply sentiment quickly pushed up quotes. However, toward month-end, actual production halts fell short of expectations, while new order growth at metal plants remained slow, limiting downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials. As actual transaction prices for Pr-Nd oxide climbed to 750,000 yuan/mt, buyers became noticeably hesitant to take orders, weakening the upward momentum. Additionally, new bearish factors emerged, and most industry participants adopted a conservative stance on how high Pr-Nd prices could go, cooling the sentiment of chasing highs.

For medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide showed strong performance in the first half of the month, mainly because upstream producers significantly reduced their willingness to sell, and low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed by the market, driving prices sharply higher. But in the second half, orders at downstream metal plants did not improve materially, and metal companies were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. As a result, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices entered a consolidation phase at highs.

Although end-use demand orders have not yet shown marked improvement and buyers' purchasing power remains limited overall, the supply side of upstream oxides has indeed contracted—whether through partial production halts in the scrap sector or tighter shipments of medium-heavy rare earths, both provide bottom support for prices. Some industry participants believe that as Q3 approaches, rare earth prices are unlikely to see much downside room after moving past the traditional off-season, and upstream quotations have therefore remained firm. Overall, rare earth oxide prices are expected to hold up moderately in July, but the upside will still be constrained by the pace of demand recovery. The market should closely monitor downstream restocking trends and changes in macro sentiment.