June Close: Tin Price Consolidates Around the 390,000 Mark; Month-End Position Adjustments Focus on Contract Rollover [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief, June 30, 2026:

The most-traded 2608 contract on the night session closed at 387,910 yuan/mt, down 0.21%, after touching a high of 395,000 yuan/mt. Yesterday morning, dragged down by South Korean tech stocks (Samsung -5%, SK Hynix -4.5%), the contract opened lower and then consolidated higher, extending gains in the afternoon as the decline in Korean stocks narrowed. During the night session on the 29th, it continued to hold up well, with the 2607 contract consolidating around the 39,000 yuan/mt level and initial signs emerging of open interest shifting to the 2608 contract. On the last day of June, position adjustments and quarter-end effects could amplify fluctuations, with the rollover window from 2607 to 2608 now opening. On the 29th, LME three-month tin closed at $51,180/mt, up $180. LME tin was still down for the week but posted two consecutive daily gains, with the 51,000 level holding for now.

Macro:

(1) Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix pledged massive investments at a government briefing, underscoring South Korea’s commitment to AI development. While investors are still digesting the impact of expanded capex on chipmakers' profitability, most view the government initiative and its determination on AI infrastructure as positive for the entire sector. Uday Vikram, co-CIO of Singapore’s Klay Group, said: “Memory chip companies are currently earning excess profits, and reinvesting those profits into capacity building is positive for Korea’s economy and industrial base.” Currently, the rapid global AI buildout continues to drive robust demand for memory chips, making Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix central to the global technology industry chain. However, their significant share-price gains have also made them more susceptible to fluctuations driven by shifts in market sentiment toward AI. Roy Lim, an equity sales trader at NH Investment & Securities in Seoul, noted: “Given the political importance of the project, the government is still likely to unveil broader policy packages, which will probably be the next focus for investors.”
(2) Nearly 20 analog and power semiconductor companies globally are about to initiate new round of price hikes on July 1, extending a pattern of multiple step-wise adjustments this year. Many producers report full orders on hand and significantly improved capacity visibility. Analysts point out that the core driver of this round of hikes is a resonance between cost pressure from rising wafer foundry and raw material prices, and surging demand for power chips driven by AI data center construction. Market share is expected to converge toward leading chip companies that possess full-chain IDM capabilities or are deeply tied to upstream suppliers, and that are exposed to high-growth sectors.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: tight tin ore supply has not yet been resolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. Most smelters maintained stable production in June. (2) Demand side: the traditional off‑season effect deepened, with rigid demand support coexisting with price‑driven restraint. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, executed against orders.

Spot market: Spot trades were generally thin on the 29th, highlighting a “strong futures, weak physical” pattern. Small‑brand premiums were 500–900 yuan/mt, Yunzi brand premiums were 900–1,200 yuan/mt, and Yunnan Tin premiums were 1,200–1,500 yuan/mt. Suppliers primarily focused on selling, but appetite to buy at high prices was weak.

[Data source statement: except for publicly available information, all data are processed by SMM based on public data, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only. They do not constitute decision‑making advice. The information provided is for reference purposes only. This document does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not treat it as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no connection with SMM.]