Oferta abundante em meio ao período de relatório semestral, cautela no downstream achata os descontos no mercado à vista [SMM Cobre à vista do norte da China]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, on the inventory front, SMM data shows that Shanghai social inventory stood at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Although some imported cargo arrived at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals last week were good, and inventory continued a slight destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. Supplier side, the month-end selling pressure has been largely released, and market shipments have returned to normal pace. Supplier quotations were relatively stable during the day, showing no signs of significant downward adjustments. Moreover, some suppliers are bullish on the premiums outlook, and their willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened. From the invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remain relatively tight, with a certain price spread maintained between current-month and next-month invoices. Overall, with the end of month-end selling, inventory destocking, and suppliers' firm price stance, the overall discount center of Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up further tomorrow.

Análise SMM | 30 de junho marca um marco crítico na investigação da Seção 232 dos EUA sobre o cobre. As tarifas do cobre refinado seguirão conforme o esperado? Seja o resultado uma tarifa ampla, medidas direcionadas ou um adiamento e isenção, a decisão poderá remodelar a arbitragem COMEX–LME, os prêmios físicos nos EUA, os fluxos globais de comércio de cobre e a dinâmica de oferta regional.