SMM June 22 News:
Metal market:
As of the midday close, domestic base metals broadly fell, with only SHFE aluminum rising 0.4%. SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 1.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.84%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc each dropped 0.7%, and SHFE copper edged down 0.34%. Alumina main contract fell 0.52%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.47%.
Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract fell 6.08%, polysilicon main contract fell 0.25%, silicon metal main contract fell 0.58%. The European shipping futures main contract rose 0.11%.
On the ferrous metals front, all rose except stainless steel, which gained 0.36%. Hot-rolled coil and iron ore fell around 0.6% each. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 2.24% and coke fell 1.78%.
In the overseas market, as of 11:38, overseas base metals rose across the board. LME nickel led the gains with a rise of 1.23%, LME tin climbed 0.88%, LME copper advanced 0.53%, and the other metals had relatively small fluctuations in gains.
In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.73%. In China, SHFE gold dropped 3.25% and SHFE silver plunged 5.65%.
Additionally, platinum main contract fell 4.77% and palladium main contract fell 3.51%.
As of 11:38 on June 22, selected futures midday quotes:
Spot and Fundamentals
Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,495-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream traded at 24,595-24,890 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream traded at 24,425-24,720 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market was quoted at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the contract. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract.....
Macro Front
Domestically:
China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR) as of June 22 was 3%, in line with expectations of 3.00% and unchanged from the previous reading of 3.00%. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Cross-regional person-trips during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday expected to exceed 650 million] According to the Ministry of Transport, during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21, 2026), total cross-regional person-trips were estimated at 652.78 million, with a daily average of 217.593 million, flat on a YoY basis. (CCTV News)
US dollar:
As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.88, with the market continuing to follow developments after the US-Iran talks. US federal funds rate futures extended losses, with the implied probability of a US Fed rate hike in September at 76%.
On June 19, Citadel Securities released a research report noting that under new Fed Chair Warsh, the US Fed has shifted from inertial decision-making to proactive adaptive policymaking. Citadel Securities warned that the market should not interpret this signal with an inertial mindset. Its core judgment is: the next move is a rate hike, and the hike is likely imminent. Meanwhile, the report emphasized that the Fed will no longer continue the previous market-coddling mode of “pre-communicating the policy path.” This shift carries significant implications for the interest rate market, the US dollar, and equities.
Citadel Securities sets its baseline scenario as completing three 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next two years, with the periods being September 2026, December 2026, and March 2027, and regards the July meeting as a “live meeting,” meaning actual action could be taken at any time. The US Fed forecasts the average core PCE in 2026-2027 to exceed the 2% target by around 90 basis points. Based on the inflation gap, Citadel Securities calculates that according to classic monetary policy rules, the policy rate should be 1.5 times the inflation gap above the neutral rate, equating to an additional 135 basis points of tightening. Assuming a neutral rate of 3%, the target policy rate should fall in the 4.25% to 4.50% range, corresponding to exactly three rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn)
According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 61.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 38.5%. For September, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 24.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 22.9%. (Jinshi Data APP)
On the data front:
Today will see the release of Canada’s May CPI month-over-month rate, the eurozone’s June consumer confidence index preliminary, and other data.
Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures to stabilize and improve foreign investment utilization. ECB President Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament.
Fed Governor Waller will deliver welcoming remarks at a conference on the international role of the US dollar.
In crude oil:
As of 11:38, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.11% and Brent down 1.24%. Oil prices experienced sharp swings today. Early on, Trump’s renewed threats during negotiations pushed prices sharply higher, and then progress in US-Iran peace talks dragged prices down.
Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on social media platform X, saying that the first round of high-level talks between the US and Iran has concluded in Burgenstock, Switzerland. All parties have agreed to establish a high-level committee. The chief negotiator will regularly report to the high-level committee and lead working groups responsible for nuclear issues, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. The high-level committee has agreed on a roadmap, aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days. To avoid accidents and miscommunication, and to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the parties have established communication channels. They also agreed to establish a de-escalation group to ensure the implementation of the commitment to cease military operations in Lebanon. For the rest of this week, technical talks will continue in Burgenstock to discuss all relevant issues. (from Wall Street CN APP)
Ali Nizar, head of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): Two vessels are currently loading crude oil at the country's southern terminals, but more ships need to enter the Strait of Hormuz for production to continue rising. (Iraq 24 TV) (from Wall Street CN APP)
Iran is transporting a large amount of oil that was previously unable to be shipped due to US sanctions, which may provide a boost after signing a temporary peace agreement with Washington last Wednesday. Shipping data shows that a total of 11 tankers were observed leaving Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman last week, carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude oil. (Bloomberg)
Spot Market at a Glance:
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![Smelter Arrivals Coupled with Import Inflows, Shanghai Spot Copper Inventory Buildup Pressure Emerges [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mpocQ20251217171712.jpg)
![US-Iran talks break down, the center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuates downward [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TYKtM20251217171753.jpg)
