Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Briefing (June 18, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review]

This week (6.15-6.18), silver prices stabilized and rebounded after consecutive declines earlier. Amid easing US-Iran tensions, futures in and outside China held up well overall, with the price center rebounding slightly WoW. The market focus during the week was on the Fed FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the fourth consecutive hold. However, the latest dot plot showed that Fed officials were more hawkish overall than before, with most members expecting no rate cuts this year, and nearly half seeing the possibility of further rate hikes. The statement noted that US inflation remained above target, and that rising energy prices and geopolitical risks added to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed would firmly push for inflation to return to the 2% long-term target and would not easily pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting outcome, silver briefly dipped after the announcement but then staged a technical recovery as expectations for further rate hikes did not significantly intensify. On the Middle East geopolitical front, the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding was formally signed and took effect, opening a 60-day negotiation period. On the industrial demand side, the premium of national standard silver ingots against T+D mainstream quotations in Shanghai was basically flat WoW, with mainstream quotations still at parity or slight premium. Most transactions settled in the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against SGE T+D, and downstream consumption returned to sluggishness as silver prices rebounded slightly. Inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their inventories, while long-term contract lock-ups and export allocations weakened the willingness to sell. Meanwhile, some upstream smelters began routine maintenance, leading to overall destocking of silver ingot social inventory in Shanghai and Shenzhen. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of June 17, the LBMA gold/silver ratio remained around 67.

[Key Data]

Bearish:

The June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot showed that most members expected no rate cuts this year, some supported further hikes, and the Fed's overall stance was hawkish.

Fed Chairman Warsh stated that current inflation remained significantly above the 2% target, monetary policy would stay restrictive, and it would be hard to signal clear rate cuts in the short term.

The US job market remained resilient, with the unemployment rate at around 4.3%, dampening expectations for rapid easing.

Bullish:

The US-Iran MOU was formally signed and took effect, opening a 60-day negotiation period.

Peru's energy crisis continued, with a nationwide state of emergency until year-end. Twelve large mines had implemented staggered production, and May silver production was expected to decline by 5%-8%. The global supply-demand gap remained, providing some bottom support for silver prices.

[Recent Focus]

June 20: US preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June;

June 26: final US Q1 GDP;

June 27: US May core PCE price index;

Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the opening of the Strait.

[Price Forecast]

Next week, silver is expected to hold up well. Continued attention should be paid to the uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with more strikes if it does not comply with the terms of the agreement. After the US Fed's June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path has temporarily diminished. Although the Fed's overall tone remains hawkish, expectations of further rate hikes have not intensified. The bearish factors for silver from the previous period have been largely released. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields will still exert some pressure on silver, and silver prices may consolidate. On China's fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain just-in-time purchasing while pushing for lower prices. The selling pressure at low spot levels has eased, and social inventories of spot silver ingots are destocking overall. However, overall sentiment has yet to recover to optimism. It is expected that the mainstream spot transaction discount will stay within the range from parity with the SGE TD to a premium of 20 yuan/kg, and it will be difficult for market transactions to shift to higher premiums in the near term.