[SMM Analysis] Manganese Industry Shows Interconnected Trends, Market Slowed by Off-Season Lull

Affected by the traditional consumption off-season and raw material price transmission, China’s deep-processed manganese products came under overall downward pressure this week. Products showed differentiated market performances due to distinct supply-demand fundamentals, with obvious linkage across the industrial chain.

Manganese sulfate market trended weakly with modest price declines. Downstream purchasing activity slowed notably, and market transactions were mostly sustained by existing long-term orders, with only sporadic spot demand. Prevailing low-inventory operations among downstream enterprises further weakened trading sentiment. Supported by firm high sulfuric acid prices, production costs remained stable, leaving manufacturers with no active price-cut willingness and limiting sharp downside risks. The market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend with mild price declines in the short term, as fundamentals see no obvious improvement.

Battery-grade manganese tetroxide posted a slight price drop, moving closely in tandem with electrolytic manganese prices. The industry saw steady operating rates and reasonable inventory levels, with balanced supply and demand that exerted limited influence on market fluctuations. The price weakness was mainly driven by falling electrolytic manganese costs, which weakened producers’ price holding sentiment and prompted selective discount offers to facilitate shipments. The downstream lithium manganate industry was also mired in the off-season, maintaining only small rigid orders. Suffering from squeezed profits, lithium manganate producers adopted conservative production and on-demand procurement strategies with low willingness for bulk restocking. The product is set to fluctuate weakly following upstream raw material price movements in the near term.

Electrolytic manganese dioxide edged down slightly before steadying. The industry kept stable production, operating rates and inventories, with manufacturers prioritizing long-term order fulfillment and orderly spot supply. Off-season demand dragged on downstream procurement from primary batteries and lithium manganate sectors, with no large-scale restocking and limited upward market momentum. Cost-wise, flat sulfuric acid prices and marginally softened manganese ore prices weakened market support and triggered the short-term price dip. Currently, market supply, demand and costs are in a stable stalemate, with manufacturers reluctant to adjust prices and narrowed market volatility.

As a core lithium battery material, lithium manganate prices fully track lithium carbonate trends. This week’s sharp lithium carbonate declines lowered production costs and pulled lithium manganate quotations down, with volatile lithium carbonate prices leading to frequent producer price adjustments. Facing falling raw material prices and shrinking profits, many manufacturers reduced output, curbing overall industry production. The market has ample spot supply, while downstream battery firms maintain cautious, small-batch and sporadic procurement, creating obvious price resistance. With prior negative factors fully digested, disorderly price drops have faded, and the market has entered a short consolidation stage.

Overall, prominent industrial chain price transmission has dominated the market, with all manganese products highly susceptible to upstream raw material fluctuations. Affected by persistent off-season sluggishness, the market lacks recovery momentum. A clear market turning point will rely on the improvement of terminal demand and stabilized raw material prices.