SMM, June 15:
Metals Market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper gained 1.35%, SHFE tin surged 4.35%, SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.31%, SHFE zinc climbed 2.37%, and SHFE lead increased 1.21%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina futures slipped slightly. Lithium carbonate most-traded contract fell 1.8%. Silicon metal most-traded contract added 0.29%. Polysilicon most-traded futures gained 0.67%.
Ferrous metals mostly rose: iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 1.97%, while the most-traded coke contract advanced 1.06%.
Overseas base metals: as of 11:38, LME metals almost all rose. LME copper gained 0.89%, LME aluminum edged down 0.17%, LME lead up 0.56%, LME zinc up 0.85%, LME tin surged 2.35%, and LME nickel up 1.12%.
Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold climbed 2.47% and COMEX silver surged 3.52%. For domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract jumped 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract soared 7.93%.
Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.36%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points.
As of 11:38 on June 15, selected futures midday quotes:
Spot and Fundamentals
Zinc: Today, mainstream #0 zinc transaction prices concentrated in the range of 24,650–24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainly traded at 24,740–24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 24,580–24,815 yuan/mt. In the morning session, quotes against the SMM average price carried a premium of 10–30 yuan/mt, and there were no quotes against the futures price yet...
Macro Front
China:
[NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting in key industries] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize and implement a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting in key industries including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It is noted that these key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them critical for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, focusing on these nine industries, the campaign will fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency as much as possible and significantly improving the green and low-carbon development level of the industries. From 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on actual conditions, with other industries added and advanced step by step, and each region can proceed in an orderly manner based on work needs.
[PBOC reverse repo net injection of CNY 206.5 billion today] PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. CNY 218.5 billion reverse repos matured today.
On the US dollar front:
As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Influenced by the cooling of the Middle East situation, the market reduced its bets on a rate hike by the US Fed. Swap rates indicate that traders now expect a probability of about 60% for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jin Shi Data APP)
Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 1.5%. By July, the probability of maintaining rates is 91.3%, with a 7.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a rate cut. (Jin Shi Data APP)
On the data front: In early June, US consumer sentiment rebounded for the first time in four months, as falling gasoline prices provided some relief to Americans facing surging inflation. A survey released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 46. Consumers expected prices to rise by 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also anticipated that costs would increase at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the previous month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain above pre-war levels, the decline in recent weeks has somewhat eased Americans' pessimism about their personal finances. The report indicated that low-income consumers, who typically allocate more of their budget to fuel spending, saw significant improvement. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting inflationary wave, overall economic sentiment remained historically depressed. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers, so the current level of gasoline prices remains broadly unacceptable to consumers and has weakened their view of the economy." (Jinshi Data APP)
Data Front:
Today's data releases include Switzerland's May consumer sentiment index, the Eurozone's April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the Eurozone's April industrial production MoM, Canada's April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State Manufacturing Index, the US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, China's May total electricity consumption YoY (pending), and others. Additionally, watch for: ECB President Lagarde's speech; the National Energy Administration typically releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G7 Summit opens and runs through June 17.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:38 am, oil prices on both benchmarks dropped sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace deal is about to be signed, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure.
According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the 19th for mine-clearing operations following the signing of the US-Iran agreement. Iran's deputy foreign minister also said that an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, would be announced tonight.
Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average could drop below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major wildcard in the latter half of the summer.“The coming weeks are critical – any major missteps could significantly impact the direction of oil prices going forward.” (Wallstreetcn.com)
Spot Market at a Glance:
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