Spot Prices of Tantalum, Tin, and Pr-Nd Rise, Minor Metal Sector Strengthens, Orient Tantalum Industry and China Tungsten High-Tech Lead the Gains [SMM Express]

SMM May 21 News:

Spot prices of tin, tantalum, and Pr-Nd oxide rose, and high molybdenum prices drove the minor metal sector to strengthen. As of 10:22 on May 21, the minor metal sector was up 2.41%. In terms of individual stocks, Eastern Tantalum and China Tungsten High-Tech gained over 6%, while Haotong Technology, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Zirconium, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Huaxi Nonferrous led the gains. This round of market movement was directly driven by improved fundamentals on the spot side, coupled with a weakening US dollar, strengthened strategic resource attributes, and emerging demand (AI, semiconductors, PV), which boosted market expectations for a tight supply-demand balance in minor metals. Some market capital showed increased willingness to flow in, driving a rebound in the minor metal sector.

Spot Market

Tantalum

The quoted price of tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) on May 20 was 6,600-6,700 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,650 yuan/kg, up 1.53% from the previous trading day. Recently, the tantalum market reached a turning point, with tantalum prices successfully hitting bottom, stabilizing, and embarking on a rebound, and the industry's upward trend gradually becoming clear. Currently, low-priced supplies within the industry chain are being accelerated in circulation and cleared, quoted prices across all product categories are rising in tandem, and the overall market is steadily improving.

Driven by expectations of positive news, some smelters proactively tightened their shipment pace and suspended external quotations. Available low-priced supplies in the market were essentially exhausted, and bullish sentiment among traders and suppliers continued to heat up. Combined with steadily rising upstream tantalum ore raw material costs providing strong support, tantalum oxide and tantalum ingot prices are expected to continue a steady upward trend going forward.

Tin

On May 21, the average price of SMM #1 tin rose 3.82% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, and market trading was sluggish. Currently, from a fundamental perspective: Supply side, most smelters maintained stable production as the main focus in May; Demand side, downstream purchasing remained cautious, with most purchases made according to order conditions.

Rare Earth

Spot market side, on May 21, supported by demand from major manufacturers' procurement, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose 1.81% from the previous trading day.

Institutional Views

Guojin Securities pointed out in a research report on May 18: Rare earth: Looking from the beginning of the year to date, the price center has been continuously rising, which we believe is likely highly correlated with supply-side policy documents released from 2024 to 2025, as industry supply-side reform continues to advance. Exports declined 1% YoY for the full year of 2025, while exports since the beginning of 2026 have increased significantly, indicating that there is still substantial restocking demand outside China. The rare earth sector is expected to continue evolving with dual upgrades in valuation and earnings, and 2026 is also a critical year for resolving horizontal competition issues among key targets. Tin: Sinolink Securities believes that invisible inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, and therefore tin prices are expected to strengthen amid macro liquidity replenishment or spillover from the tech rally. The tin supply-demand pattern is expected to improve over the long term. Molybdenum: Molybdenum concentrates were priced at 5,210 yuan/mtu in the current period, up 10.50% MoM; ferromolybdenum was priced at 324,000 yuan/mt in the current period, up 9.46% MoM. Imported ore has been largely depleted, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel procurement volumes remained robust, with destocking across the industry chain, gradually breaking the stalemate of "volume without price" in molybdenum, and the upward trajectory became further confirmed. Molybdenum is also a defense-related metal with persistently low inventory, and increased ex-China national defense spending may further boost molybdenum prices. Tantalum: The tantalum industry is expected to benefit from the upward cycle driven by high-end demand boost. Related targets: Orient Tantalum Industry, Xinjinlu, Jiangwu Equipment.

CITIC Securities published a research report on May 13, noting that in Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, earnings growth across the metals sector generally accelerated, with tungsten, lithium, lead-zinc, and rare earth magnetic materials leading the gains, while aluminum, copper (copper: BK1615 3,885.79, 0.58%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold underperformed since the beginning of the year. Current valuations in the metals sector remain at reasonable levels, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold at relatively low valuations, and a valuation rebound is still expected. Sector dividends pulled back slightly, but projected dividend yields for some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, with liquidity shocks easing, supply disruptions occurring frequently, and select downstream sectors sustaining relatively high prosperity, it is recommended to continue focusing on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold.

Guotai Haitong Securities believes that since 2024, rare earth prices have gradually consolidated at lows, the slowdown in domestic quota allocation has continued, and while expectations for ex-China rare earth development have been fermenting, actual progress may fall short of expectations. On the demand side, NEVs, home appliances, wind power, and other sectors have maintained the fundamental demand base, while humanoid robots represent a long-term upside option. The curtain on a supply-demand reversal has already begun to rise. As a domestic strategic commodity, rare earths are expected to see a dual boost in earnings and valuation.