SMM May 19 News:
Persistently sluggish downstream demand dragged the tungsten market lower. As of May 19, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was quoted at 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). The current price level has not only completely erased all gains for the year but also pulled back from the year-end 2024 price. Moreover, in just over two months, the decline from the annual average price high reached 57.59%. End-users maintained a cautious purchasing stance, with weak demand transmitting upward through the supply chain, continuously exerting significant downward pressure on raw material prices. Under these circumstances, how will tungsten prices perform going forward?
Wolframite Concentrates Continue to Decline, with All Annual Gains Fully Retraced
According to SMM quotations, on May 19, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 445,000–446,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with a market average price of 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 3.26% from the previous trading day.
In a horizontal comparison, the current average price pulled back 8,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the average price of 453,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on December 31, 2025, with all previously accumulated gains for the year fully retraced.
Looking at the annual price trend, the current price has significantly departed from its highs. Compared to the annual historical average price high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) set on March 16 this year, the average price of wolframite concentrates has cumulatively plunged by 605,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over two months, a cumulative decline of 57.59%, representing a highly significant pullback.
Outlook
Overall, there are currently no substantive positive factors underpinning the market. Mainstream downstream consumers such as cemented carbide and machining enterprises maintained conservative purchasing attitudes, generally adhering to a business strategy of "purchasing as needed and strictly controlling inventory," with overall end-use demand remaining persistently weak. Sluggish demand directly dragged down upstream smelting-stage demand for products such as APT and tungsten powder, with operational pressure transmitting upward through the industry chain and continuously suppressing tungsten concentrates raw material prices. Even if mining regulatory controls maintain a relatively strict pace going forward and commissioning progress of low-grade tungsten mines falls short of market expectations, the support from the supply side remains limited and is unlikely to offset the downward pressure from weak end-use demand.
In the short term, the market lacks sufficient momentum to support a strong price rebound. Tungsten product prices are expected to move sideways amid the interplay between weak demand and low raw material costs. Close attention should be paid to subsequent long-term contract pricing by major tungsten enterprises for price guidance. From a medium and long-term perspective, China's primary tungsten ore mining scale and production are still expected to continue their YoY declining trend. However, during the previous tungsten price surge cycle, the tungsten consumption structure at the industrial end-user level underwent deep optimization, with tungsten consumption in low-value-added sectors gradually exiting the market. Combined with the cemented carbide industry's continuous quality upgrades, extended tool service life, and accelerated transition toward high-end products, multiple factors have resulted in China's actual tungsten consumption volume falling short of previous market expectations.
Against this backdrop, the tungsten industry's supply-demand pattern has undergone a fundamental shift—from the previous logic of price increases driven by mine-side supply contraction, it has officially transitioned to a new pattern of "demand-led, structure-priced, cost-supported, and expectations-driven."
