【SMM Analysis】Ternary Cathode Outlook Remains Positive

Published: May 14, 2026 21:26
The domestic EV market is currently in a phase of concentrated stockpiling for new models, with orders rebounding notably.

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued their upward trend. On the raw material front, prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate were largely flat week-on-week. The main driver was the continued sharp rise in spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, pushing ternary cathode material prices to a cyclical high.

In terms of transactions, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices saw a modest pullback in the latter half of the week, creating a pricing opportunity for some manufacturers and resulting in small-batch order placements. On the long-term contract front, payables have shown no significant changes recently.

On the demand side, the domestic EV market is currently in a phase of concentrated stockpiling for new models, with orders rebounding notably. The overseas market is also strong, driven by robust European vehicle sales and stockpiling for new product launches by some brands, collectively boosting orders for domestic cathode manufacturers. In the consumer market, due to the traditional off-season and persistently high raw material prices, demand remains relatively subdued in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Drifted Lower on July 24] SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices drifted lower compared with the previous working day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 144,200 yuan/mt today, drifted lower after opening, moved sideways below the average price line (143,800 yuan/mt) in the morning, and hit a low of 141,300 yuan/mt; around midday, bulls and bears repeatedly struggled in the 141,000–144,000 yuan/mt range, with trading volume increasing in stages; in the afternoon, bulls briefly exerted strength, pushing the price to surge to 145,800 yuan/mt, before it encountered bearish selling pressure and drifted lower. The contract then consolidated at lows around 144,300 yuan/mt in the late session, finally closing down 0.88% at 144,300 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 13,209 lots. In the spot market, downstream purchase willingness moderated, with purchasing mainly as needed; upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling for spot orders, trading more with downstream through long-term contracts. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions relatively slowed down.
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