[SMM Analysis] China's EV Charging Network Slows Expansion, Focus Shifts to Power Upgrades

Charging Network: Expansion Slowing, Power Upgrade Becomes the Main Theme

As of July-end 2026, China's total number of EV charging infrastructure (guns) reached 23.683 million, up 41.8% YoY, making it the world's largest charging network. Among them, private charging facilities totaled 18.584 million, accounting for about 78%, up 48.7% YoY, still the foundation of the charging system; public charging facilities were 5.099 million, up 21.3% YoY. Notably, new additions of public charging facilities in H1 decreased 43.5% YoY, indicating that the phase of extensive expansion has largely ended. Meanwhile, the average charging power per gun at public stations rose to about 48.4 kW, and among top-tier players, large-power charging facilities above 250 kW had reached 200,000 units. The industry's competitive focus is shifting from facility density to charging efficiency. In terms of usage intensity, the national power consumption for charging and swapping services in July reached 16.4 billion kWh, up 50.3% YoY and up 1.6 billion kWh MoM. The growth rate of electricity consumption continued to outpace that of facility numbers (from January to July, charging facility additions decreased 7.4% YoY), and utilization rate per gun improved steadily. From the perspective of power flow, heavy trucks, ride-hailing vehicles, and passenger cars have become the main charging users. The rapid increase in heavy truck charging demand is consistent with the electrification process of commercial vehicles. Meanwhile, regional imbalance remains prominent: the top ten provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu concentrated 66.2% of public charging facilities, with Guangdong ranking first nationally with 859,000 units.

Battery Swapping Model: Vehicle-Battery Separation Reconstructs Battery Asset Attributes, Commercialization First in Operational Scenarios

The battery swapping model, through "vehicle-battery separation," transfers battery ownership from users to battery asset companies. Consumers only need to purchase the auto body, using batteries on a rental basis, and combined with the policy of levying purchase tax based on "car price excluding battery," the threshold for car purchase is significantly lowered. The swapped batteries are charged and circulated within the swapping station, with costs gradually amortized through rental income, peak-valley electricity price spread, second-life application, and recycling. In terms of competitive landscape, NIO maintains a lead with about 4,000 battery swapping stations. CATL's "chocolate battery swapping" brand has completed construction 2,000 stations in H1, using standardized battery blocks adapted to over 20 automakers including Changan, Geely, GAC, and Chery, and plans to complete construction 4,000 stations by year-end. Its heavy truck swapping brand "Qiji" has deployed over 305 stations along trunk lines in 26 provinces. PetroChina and Sinopec, relying on over 50,000 gas stations nationwide, are retrofitting comprehensive energy stations combining "refueling + charging + swapping," providing infrastructure support for large-scale deployment of swapping networks.

However, the swapping model has not yet achieved profit break-even. According to estimates, a single swapping station requires investment of about 1.5 million to 3 million yuan, and needs 60 to 70 swaps per day on average to reach break-even. Currently, the industry's top-tier players' entire network averages only about 25 swaps per day, with only about 20% of stations achieving profitability. Relatively speaking, high-frequency operational scenarios such as taxis, ride-hailing vehicles, and heavy trucks are highly sensitive to charging efficiency. The cost of swapping over the full life cycle has shown feasibility, and the commercialization process is significantly faster than that of private passenger car market.

Route Outlook: Layered Pattern Gradually Clear, Ultra-Fast Charging and Swapping Compete and Cooperate by Scenario

SMM expects that the future charging system will present a "three-layer structure": private slow charging as the base layer, covering about 80% of daily charging needs; large-power ultra-fast charging as the backbone layer, dominating the public charging market — megawatt-level flash charging technology has shortened charging time to 5 minutes for a driving range of 450 km, significantly narrowing the time gap with swapping. Additionally, ultra-fast charging facilities do not require battery inventory, do not bind to battery assets, and are compatible with all car models, with fewer expansion constraints. Swapping, as a supplementary layer, maintains differentiated advantages in operational vehicles, heavy truck trunk routes, and high-end brand service scenarios. From 2026 to 2028, ultra-fast charging and swapping will be in direct competition in the passenger car segment. If solid-state batteries achieve mass production and further enhance driving range and fast-charging performance, the market window for passenger car swapping may further narrow.

Impact on Battery Industry Chain

The divergence of charging routes is reshaping battery demand structure: The ultra-fast charging route promotes the accelerated penetration of technologies such as 4C and above fast-charging LFP batteries, silicon carbon anode, high-voltage electrolyte, and LMFP. Fast-charging performance has shifted from a product "plus factor" to an "entry threshold." The swapping route imposes higher requirements on battery cycle life and consistency, creating growth space for battery asset management models. Industry insiders believe that top-tier battery players' simultaneous layout along both routes is essentially preemptively locking in battery demand through infrastructure. The competition in charging networks has evolved into a battle for battery market share. SMM New Energy Industry Research