Brazil Raises Anti-Dumping Duty on Chinese Magnesium Ingots, Impacting Global Trade Landscape

[Weekly Magnesium Ingot Prices Rise on Strong Upstream Support; Insufficient Downstream Follow-Through Limits Upside Room] This week, mainstream quotations for magnesium ingot in major producing areas were 15,900-16,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, with FOB prices at $2,250-2,350/mt. This round of magnesium ingot price gains was driven by three factors: supply-side maintenance-related production cuts, cost push from coal and ferrosilicon, and concentrated delivery and restocking by traders. However, after the price increase, downstream fear of high prices emerged and transactions returned to mediocre levels; foreign trade remained weak, constrained by exchange rate fluctuations and the uncertain recovery of summer break orders. Upstream dolomite prices were stable, with sufficient supply from multiple channels; downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices followed the increase, but demand follow-through was insufficient. Magnesium alloy processing fees remained under pressure due to ample inventory, the impact of non-standard supply sources, high-temperature maintenance at die-casting enterprises, plastic substitution in two-wheelers, and other factors. In the short term, cost support is pitted against weak demand, and magnesium prices continue to move sideways.

【SMM Weekly Magnesium Review】This week, the mainstream offer of magnesium ingots in major production regions stands at RMB 15,900-16,000/ton, up RMB 100/ton week on week, with FOB offer at USD 2,250-2,350/ton. This round of magnesium ingot rally is driven by three factors: supply-side maintenance-led production cuts, rising costs of coal and ferrosilicon, and concentrated order fulfillment and restocking by traders. However, after the price hike, downstream players have developed reluctance to chase high prices, leading to dull transactions; the foreign trade sector remains weak, constrained by exchange rate fluctuations and unclear recovery of orders amid the summer break. The price of upstream dolomite stays stable with sufficient supply from multiple channels; downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy follow the price hike but lack sufficient demand support. For magnesium alloy, processing fees remain under continuous pressure due to ample inventory, impact of non-standard supplies, high-temperature maintenance of die-casting enterprises, and plastic substitution in two-wheeled vehicles. In the short term, amid the game between cost support and sluggish demand, magnesium price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.

【SMM Weekly Magnesium Inventory Express】This week, the inventory of primary magnesium smelting enterprises decreased by 2.20% month-on-month, and the overall primary magnesium market inventory showed a continuous downward trend this week. This round of inventory decline is mainly driven by two factors. On the one hand, although more enterprises in the main primary magnesium production areas resumed production this week and the total output of the industry was slightly adjusted upward, the resumption progress was relatively gentle, the overall increase in output was limited, and the supplementary strength of new supply to inventory was weak; on the other hand, downstream traders concentrated on restocking, coupled with the centralized fulfillment of pending orders in the early stage, the overall activity of the market trading atmosphere increased significantly, and the spot goods in the factory were greatly digested, which directly drove the rapid destocking of the factory-side inventory. Looking forward to the after-market, as the resumption rhythm of magnesium smelting enterprises continues to accelerate, the overall output of primary magnesium will further increase, and the pressure on the market supply side will gradually accumulate. By then, the inventory of magnesium plants is likely to end the current downward trend and usher in a situation of stopping the decline and rebounding.