SHFE Copper Prices Continued to Rise, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Further Under Pressure [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, May 13:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to parity against the current-month 2605 contract, with an average discount of 35 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were at 108,200-108,800 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper 2605 opened higher and then moved sideways in a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 107,850 yuan/mt. After the open, prices jumped to 108,710 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 108,300 yuan/mt and 108,800 yuan/mt. Copper prices subsequently pulled back from the high of 108,810 yuan/mt, dipping to 108,150 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding, with a closing price of 108,440 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 current-month contract ranged from a loss of 290 yuan/mt to a loss of 190 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.59, down 0.04 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.4, down 0.06 MoM. Historical data can be accessed in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers' first round of offers for standard-quality copper were at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to parity, with SPCC-ILO, Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity, and ONSAN, Dajiang PC, Jinguan, Zhongtiaoshan, Jinfeng, and Zijin quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt. Suppliers subsequently lowered prices further, with ONSAN quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, Xiangguang, Lufang, and JCC quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Tongguan quoted at an ex-factory discount of 20 yuan/mt to parity. High-quality copper Jintun large slabs were quoted at parity. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered prices, with Jinguan, Jintun PC, and Jinxin transacted at an ex-factory discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper transacted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to a discount of 180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, downstream purchasing sentiment remains subdued, and both selling and purchasing sentiment pulled back intraday, with spot discounts continuing to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand and limited willingness to chase higher prices. In terms of market structure, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts remained in the 90-20 yuan/mt range. As the 05 contract delivery date approaches, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse is increasing, and delivery logic is expected to provide floor support for spot discounts, limiting further significant downside. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with a generally weak tone but limited downside room.