After Delivery, Sharp Drop in Copper Prices Curbs Suppliers' Shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]

LME copper inventories increased for two consecutive trading sessions. On August 14, LME copper inventories increased by 2,850 mt to 207,800 mt, and on August 17, inventories further increased by 15,700 mt to 223,600 mt. The cumulative increase over the two trading sessions was 18,600 mt, representing a growth rate of about 9.1%. In particular, warehouse inflows reached 17,500 mt on August 17, driving a sharp rebound in inventories that day. In terms of warrant structure, as of August 17, LME copper registered warrants increased to 123,100 mt, up by 20,000 mt from August 14. Registered warrants increased significantly and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined; as inventories increased, intraday copper prices touched a low of around $14,000/mt.

BHP’s copper business has overtaken iron ore as the group’s largest earnings contributor, underscoring the growing strategic importance of the metal to the world’s biggest listed miner.​ For the financial year ended June 30, BHP reported $18.19 billion in operating earnings from copper, surpassing its iron ore division. The shift came as record copper prices supported stronger profitability across the group, with full-year underlying attributable profit rising 30% to $13.20 billion.​ The company also highlighted a project pipeline that could increase copper production by as much as 40% by 2035, reinforcing copper’s central role in BHP’s long-term growth strategy. This comes despite expectations for weaker near-term output as lower grades at Escondida and operational constraints in South Australia weigh on production.​ BHP’s stronger copper exposure is increasingly shaping both its earnings profile and capital-allocation priorities. Copper, alongside iron ore, steelmaking coal and potash, has been identified as a core commodity supporting long-term demand linked to electrification, infrastructure and energy-system expansion.​ The group also reported net debt of $8.7 billion as at June 30 and declared a full-year dividend of $1.72 per share, its highest annual payout in four years.​ From a copper-market perspective, the results highlight how high prices and expectations of sustained structural demand are reshaping the economics of major diversified miners. BHP’s plan to expand copper output by up to 40% by 2035 suggests that future growth in the sector will increasingly depend on large-scale brownfield expansions and new projects capable of supporting rising global demand.