SM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, May 11, 2026
Last week, the tin market in and outside China exhibited a pattern of sharp rallies followed by fluctuations at highs. From a macro perspective, global tech industry prosperity stayed high, with expectations of AI computing power and semiconductor-related demand continuing to boost tin's long-term consumption. Combined with concentrated capital inflows after the holiday, these factors drove the most-traded SHFE tin contract to surge over 8% on the first trading day after the Labour Day holiday, briefly approaching the 420,000 yuan/mt mark. Subsequently, Iran proposed a communication plan to lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade, leading to a mild retreat in geopolitical premiums, while US April ADP employment data exceeded expectations, keeping overall macro sentiment relatively optimistic. Supply-demand fundamentals showed a tight pattern, with visible inventory at extremely low levels, providing solid support for prices. Supply-side disruptions remained the core issue, as the resumption of tin mine production in Myanmar's Wa State fell significantly short of expectations, with actual mining levels reaching only 40-50% of pre-ban levels. Moreover, the region is about to enter the rainy season, which will further constrain output efficiency. Meanwhile, Indonesia's April refined tin exports declined sharply MoM, with a slow pace of export recovery. The demand side showed clear divergence. Although the long-term consumption logic in PV and electronics sectors remained unchanged, after tin prices surged above 400,000 yuan/mt, the absolute high prices significantly suppressed physical consumption. Downstream solder enterprises faced losses, with procurement shifting entirely to a wait-and-see stance, and spot market transactions nearly stalling. Looking ahead, the low-inventory and supply-constrained pattern is unlikely to change in the short term, supporting tin prices to stay high. However, negative feedback from the demand side triggered by high prices is accumulating, and the market lacks actual buying support. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to mainly exhibit wild swings at highs, and investors need to closely monitor supply-side production resumption progress, the degree of negative feedback from downstream consumption, and changes in macro sentiment and capital flows.
