SMM May 7:
During the morning session, SHFE copper 2605 showed a pattern of declining, stabilizing, and then rebounding. The opening price was 103,000 yuan/mt. After opening, prices edged down to 102,930 yuan/mt before rising to a high of 103,150 yuan/mt. Prices then turned downward, dipping to 102,630 yuan/mt, and consolidated in the range of 102,630-102,730 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rising again, with the closing price at 102,860 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract ranged from a loss of 180 yuan/mt to a loss of 70 yuan/mt.
Intraday, buying and selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai rebounded. The selling sentiment was 2.7, up 0.06 MoM, and the buying sentiment was 2.6, up 0.11 MoM. Historical data can be accessed in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered standard-quality copper at premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt, with Lufang and Xiangguang quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt, Dajiang PC, Jinguan, Jinfeng, Tiefeng, and Zhongtiaoshan quoting premiums of 70-80 yuan/mt, high-quality copper Guiye quoting a premium of 120 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper quoted at discounts of 40-30 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers lowered prices. Jintun PC, Jinguan, and Jinxin quoted factory-pickup premiums of 80 yuan/mt, with actual transactions at premiums of 60-80 yuan/mt. Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zijin, and Dajiang HS quoted premiums of 40-60 yuan/mt, while Xiangguang and Lufang quoted premiums of 80 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper was in tight supply, with only some Myanmar-origin material in circulation, quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, morning premiums were quoted high, but market transactions failed to follow through. Suppliers proactively lowered quotes in the second session, with the premium center shifting notably lower from the morning level. This reflected limited downstream acceptance of high copper prices and spot premiums amid copper prices fluctuating at highs, with purchasing driven mainly by rigid demand. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers' increased willingness to sell and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain premiums against the 2605 contract tomorrow.
