U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Extended, LME Zinc Rally Continues [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, April 23

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,446/mt. After the open, LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, dipping to a low of $3,433.5/mt early in the session. Near the close, LME zinc touched a high of $3,491.5/mt, ultimately closing higher at $3,466.5/mt, up $29.5/mt or 0.86%. Trading volume decreased to 10,210 lots, and open interest increased by 3,628 lots to 229,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened at 24,360 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc hovered at highs, dipping to a low of 24,300 yuan/mt early in the session and touching a high of 24,460 yuan/mt mid-session, ultimately closing higher at 24,395 yuan/mt, up 145 yuan/mt or 0.6%. Trading volume increased to 57,090 lots, and open interest increased by 7,625 lots to 98,700 lots.

Macro: Trump said new US-Iran talks could resume as early as Friday; Iranian media responded that no decision had been made yet. The White House said the claim that Iran was given 3 to 5 days to respond was untrue. Trump said there was "no timetable" for ending the conflict with Iran and there was no need to rush. Lebanon will demand a one-month extension of the ceasefire deadline in talks with Israel. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued guidelines on achieving higher-level and higher-quality energy conservation and carbon reduction. In Q1 2026, Shanghai's GDP grew 5.9% YoY, and Shenzhen's GDP grew 5.8% YoY. Tencent and Alibaba were reportedly in talks to invest in DeepSeek, with a valuation potentially exceeding $20 billion.

Spot market:

Shanghai: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Shanghai region was 1.96, and the shipments sentiment was 2.73. Futures zinc prices stayed high. Downstream enterprises mostly continued to wait and see yesterday, and spot purchases were basically on an as-needed basis. Market trades were relatively poor, but traders continued to hold prices firm. Spot quotes remained stable, and spot premiums were basically flat from the previous session.

Guangdong: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Guangdong region was 1.72, and the sales sentiment was 2.63. Zinc prices continued to fluctuate at highs yesterday. End-use consumption was lackluster due to high prices, and enterprises showed low purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, spot trades were ordinary, and spot premiums were flat from the previous day.

Tianjin: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Tianjin region was 1.72, and the shipments sentiment was 2.46. Zinc prices continued to fluctuate at highs yesterday. Downstream buyers were cautious about high prices and restrained purchases, with only small volumes of rigid-demand restocking. Trades were mainly among traders. Traders' shipment premiums remained stable, and overall market transactions were ordinary.

Ningbo: Yesterday, trader quotes in the Ningbo market were basically stable from the previous day, and spot premiums remained firm. Downstream alloy plants had ordinary orders. Combined with high futures zinc prices exerting pressure, overall spot transactions remained driven by rigid-demand pricing after the fact, and trading performance was ordinary.

Social inventory: On April 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,675 mt to 105,850 mt, a decline of 1.56%. According to SMM communication, as of April 20, China's inventory saw a cumulative increase.

Zinc price outlook: During the overnight session, LME zinc posted a bullish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average providing support below. Trump extended the ceasefire period with Iran, non-ferrous metals rose broadly, and with continued drawdowns in LME zinc ingot inventory and a notable narrowing of the LME Cash-3M contango, LME zinc trended higher in a fluctuating manner, with the center continuing to shift upward. During the overnight session, SHFE zinc posted a bullish candlestick, with the KDJ indicator widening. Boosted by LME trends, SHFE zinc opened higher with a gap in the night session. Combined with the persistently low SHFE/LME price ratio, China's zinc ingot export window showed a tendency to open, and SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend at highs.

Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.