[China Iron Ore Brief] Domestic Iron Ore Prices May Be in the Doldrums Next Week

The European Commission published Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, establishing the EU steel trade regime that takes effect 1 July 2026 and replaces the safeguard measures expiring 30 June. The new framework sets annual tariff-rate quotas of 18.3 million mt with a 50% out-of-quota duty, and adds a melt-and-pour origin requirement to curb circumvention. Crucially, the country-specific quota allocations are not yet set: they will come via a separate implementing act that has not been published, even as talks with several FTA partners reportedly continue. The gap leaves importers and supply chains uncertain about how the quota system will function from day one, with stainless mills among those watching the final country splits.

According to SMM statistics, both mill and social inventories experienced varying degrees of buildup. Total building materials inventory reached 8.0193 million mt, up 226,600 mt or 2.91% MoM, signaling the emergence of an inventory inflection point.

[Steel Mill Price Adjustment] On June 25, Shougang Group Changzhi adjusted construction steel prices: rebar, coiled rebar, and high-speed wire rod prices remain temporarily stable. [SMM Steel]