Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,908.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated at highs, mostly moving in the $1,905-1,915/mt range. It once attempted to break above the 20-day moving average intraday but failed, with the high at $1,917/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead reversed lower and fell below $1,900/mt. საბოლოապես, as the US dollar index weakened, LME lead recovered part of its losses and closed at $1,907.5/mt, down 0.24%, while posting a long lower shadow.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,485 yuan/mt. Rising lead ingot warrant inventory weighed on bulls' momentum, while expectations for production cuts in secondary lead remained, leaving SHFE lead still locked in a tug-of-war between 16,450-16,515 yuan/mt. In the end, SHFE lead closed at 16,495 yuan/mt, down 0.03%; its open interest reached 61,594 lots, an increase of 931 lots from the previous trading day.
On the Macro Front:
PBOC: Give full play to the combined effects of incremental policy and existing policy, and strengthen monetary policy regulation. China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased for a second straight month. US President Trump said he would end the Iran war within "two to three weeks." Trump's "exit roadmap" emerged: he is willing to end the war first, while reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be left to Europe and Gulf allies. Trump: Countries should go to the Strait of Hormuz themselves to "grab oil." Iran's president said there was willingness to end the war on the premise of ensuring no further aggression, while Iran's foreign minister said there had been information exchanges with the US but no negotiations.
:
Yesterday, in the spot lead market, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Some suppliers held prices firm for shipments, and quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised from the previous day, while premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site pulled back. Quotations in mainstream producing areas were at premiums of 0-80 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price, and transaction premiums declined. On the secondary lead side, smelters shipped in line with market conditions, and firm-price sentiment among some enterprises eased slightly. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand and low enthusiasm for inquiries. In addition, some mainly purchased through long-term contracts, leaving spot order transactions weak.
Inventory: As of March 31, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,300 mt from the previous day to 281,700 mt; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory stood at 53,041 mt, up 174 mt from the previous trading day; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions extended its decline, though the pace narrowed significantly.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, lead ingot inventory trends in and outside China have diverged slightly. Consumption in the Chinese market has relatively softened, and spot market trading has been sluggish, leaving lead prices overall in a rangebound pattern. In early April, maintenance and resumptions coexisted among primary lead smelters in south-west China. Due to differences in enterprise scale, lead ingot supply tightened regionally, while other regions remained stable with a slight increase. In addition, some medium-sized and large secondary lead enterprises plan to undergo maintenance in mid-to-late April, and attention should be paid to the timing of whether such maintenance is ultimately carried out. In the short term, lead fundamentals have a limited impact on prices, and guidance from changes on the macro front should be monitored. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
![Outside China Lead Ingot Destocking Exceeded 1,000 mt, LME Lead Rebounded After Testing Lower Levels [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TmYox20251217171721.jpeg)
![Imported Refined Lead Arrivals Increase, Smelters Add New Maintenance Plans in April, Lead Prices Are Expected to Maintain a Fluctuating Trend in the Short Term [Brief Commentary on Lead Futures]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LCtEk20251217171721.jpeg)
