Month-End Trading Was Sluggish, and SHFE Copper Spot Discounts Remained in the Doldrums [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Mar 31, 2026 13:26

Save

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to see a phased recovery. Demand side, as a new monthly procurement cycle begins, the previously pent-up purchasing demand of downstream enterprises will be gradually released. Coupled with the stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, market inquiry activity is expected to rebound, and trading conditions may improve significantly from month-end levels, providing some support for spot discounts. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that actual consumption demand still dominates the market, while brand premiums have weakened. Supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and the destocking speed of social inventory in Shanghai has slowed, leaving overall circulating supply relatively ample and limiting the room for discount recovery. Overall, driven by early-month procurement and pre-holiday stockpiling, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to see some narrowing in discounts tomorrow.

SMM, March 31:

In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract fluctuated rangebound. It opened at 95,400 yuan/mt. After the opening, prices rose to a high of 95,640 yuan/mt, then pulled back. Prices then repeatedly retreated after rapid rise, touching a high of 95,890 yuan/mt, before entering a weak downward trend and falling to a low of 95,310 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 95,440 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts hovered between a Contango of 50 yuan/mt and a Backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract remained in a loss range of 140 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt.

Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.54, down 0.04 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.39, down 0.09 MoM.. At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 70-50 yuan/mt, with offers for brands such as Lufang and JCC at discounts of 60-50 yuan/mt, Daye large plate, Zijin, and Honglu at discounts of 70 yuan/mt, and Jinguan and Jinxin on an ex-works basis at discounts of 60-50 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi was quoted at discounts of 40-30 yuan/mt; non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, as market inquiries were limited, suppliers further lowered prices. Standard-quality copper such as Tiefeng, Daye HS, and Zijin was quoted at discounts of 80-70 yuan/mt; for registered SX-EW copper, only some Myanmar cargoes were circulating, quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to see a phased recovery. Demand side, as a new monthly procurement cycle begins, previously accumulated purchasing demand from downstream enterprises is expected to be gradually released. Coupled with the stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, market inquiry activity is likely to rebound, and transactions may improve significantly from month-end levels, providing some support for spot discounts. In terms of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained narrow, reflecting that actual consumption demand still dominates the market, while brand premiums have weakened. Supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and the destocking speed of social inventory in Shanghai has slowed, leaving overall circulating supply relatively ample and limiting the room for spot discounts to recover. Overall, driven by early-month procurement and pre-holiday stockpiling, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to see somewhat narrower discounts tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

6 hours ago

Zambia's Hichilema Re-elected, Focus Shifts to Copper Production Growth and Infrastructure Challenges

President Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election provides greater policy continuity for Zambia’s mining sector, but the focus is now shifting from investment commitments and macroeconomic stabilisation toward whether the country can translate its expanding copper project pipeline into sustained production growth. Official results confirmed Hichilema’s second-term victory on August 18, with around 60% of the vote. For mining investors, the result reduces uncertainty around the policy direction that has underpinned Zambia’s recent push to attract capital into copper and other strategic minerals. Zambia is targeting annual copper production of 3 million tonnes by 2031, nearly triple current output levels. The strategy depends on a combination of brownfield expansions, new mine developments and continued exploration, making execution over the next several years critical to determining whether the target can be achieved. The main constraint is increasingly infrastructure rather than geological potential. Mining companies have highlighted electricity availability as one of the most important risks to future production growth, with industry estimates indicating that roughly 2,000 MW of additional power capacity will be required to support the planned expansion of the mining sector. Climate risk adds further complexity. Zambia’s heavy dependence on hydropower leaves the system exposed to weak rainfall and reservoir inflows, while the developing 2026–27 El Niño raises the possibility of renewed pressure on electricity supply. Reuters notes that previous drought-related shortages constrained mining activity and remain an important risk to the country’s copper-growth outlook. From a copper-market perspective, Hichilema’s second term therefore represents a transition from policy continuity to delivery. Zambia has attracted renewed mining investment and built a substantial project pipeline, but reaching the 3 million-tonne target will depend on whether new mines and expansions can be brought online alongside sufficient power, infrastructure and financing.The next phase of Zambia’s copper story will therefore be measured less by announced investment and more by actual tonnes produced.

6 hours ago

12 hours ago

After Delivery, Sharp Drop in Copper Prices Curbs Suppliers' Shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]

12 hours ago

LME Copper Inventories Rise by More Than 10kt in Two Days, Copper Prices Touch $14,000 at Low Levels

LME copper inventories increased for two consecutive trading sessions. On August 14, LME copper inventories increased by 2,850 mt to 207,800 mt, and on August 17, inventories further increased by 15,700 mt to 223,600 mt. The cumulative increase over the two trading sessions was 18,600 mt, representing a growth rate of about 9.1%. In particular, warehouse inflows reached 17,500 mt on August 17, driving a sharp rebound in inventories that day. In terms of warrant structure, as of August 17, LME copper registered warrants increased to 123,100 mt, up by 20,000 mt from August 14. Registered warrants increased significantly and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined; as inventories increased, intraday copper prices touched a low of around $14,000/mt.

12 hours ago