Brief Review of the Spot Market and China Inventory (March 12, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

China’s silver prices fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price spread between the Gold Exchange TD price and the SHFE March contract kept narrowing, while a large volume of imported silver ingots entered the market to meet downstream demand, driving down spot premiums for physical silver ingots rapidly. Although many suppliers were reluctant to sell and mostly held firm on offers, downstream buyers actively negotiated for lower prices, and spot premiums in China had already fallen sharply by the end of the week. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for domestic standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been lowered to 600-700 yuan/kg. A few suppliers held firm and were reluctant to sell at premiums of 700-800 yuan/kg against TD, but actual transactions were thin. In Shenzhen, imported large ingots were processed into small ingots before entering the market for trading. Some suppliers, concerned that spot premiums would continue to fall, sold at premiums of 400-500 yuan/kg against TD. Downstream buyers actively negotiated, but remained cautious and mostly stayed on the sidelines due to concerns over further declines in both absolute prices and spot premiums. Actual procurement transactions weakened, and some downstream purchasing demand was delayed until next week.
Inventory side, silver social inventory across different regions rose and fell this week. Imported large ingots or silver ingots processed from imported crude silver raw materials entered social warehouses. As downstream demand remained strong, the increase in supply only led to a slight overall buildup in silver ingot social inventory this week.