Falling SHFE Copper Futures Prices Stimulated Downstream Orders, Driving a Steady Recovery in Spot Discounts [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Mar 4, 2026 12:00

Save

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a mild recovery. Futures prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprise orders increased. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month and the C contract narrowed, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive; coupled with social inventory remaining at high levels, overall circulating supply in the market is ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums showed a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.

SMM, March 4:

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2603 contract fluctuated in consolidation before retreating after a rapid rise, then rebounded again late in the session. It opened at 101,340 yuan/mt. After the open, prices fluctuated between 101,350 yuan/mt and 101,660 yuan/mt, then quickly surged to an intraday high of 102,370 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently eased, pulling back to 101,650 yuan/mt, before rising again late in the session. As of the close, the closing price was 102,100 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts for the next-month contract ranged from 310 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the current-month SHFE copper was a loss of 500 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt.

Intraday, in Shanghai, the sales sentiment for copper cathode was 2.76, down 0.09 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.79, up 0.02 MoM. . At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted spot discounts for standard-quality copper at 230 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, with SPCC-ILO and SUMIKO-N quoted at discounts of 150 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, and Zhongtiaoshan, Jinchuan ISA, Zijin, and Honglu quoted at discounts of 200 yuan/mt to 190 yuan/mt. Suppliers later slightly lowered prices, with SPCC-ILO, SUMIKO-N, Xiangguang, and HMG-B quoted at discounts of 150 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, and Zhongtiaoshan, Jinchuan ISA, Zijin, and Honglu quoted at discounts of 230 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, constrained by scarce circulating supply, including Jinchuan (plate), was quoted at discounts of 70 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 300 yuan/mt to 280 yuan/mt. Entering the second time window, standard-quality copper prices gradually stabilized with basically no change; Tongguan, Jinguang, and Jinxin were successively traded at quoted discounts of 210 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper was active but scarce, with only some Myanmar cargoes circulating, quoted at discounts of 250 yuan/mt to 240 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a mild recovery. Futures prices edged lower, while downstream enterprise orders increased. From the market structure perspective, the contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive; coupled with social inventory at elevated levels, overall circulating supply remained ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, providing support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums are showing a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

8 hours ago

Zambia's Hichilema Re-elected, Focus Shifts to Copper Production Growth and Infrastructure Challenges

President Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election provides greater policy continuity for Zambia’s mining sector, but the focus is now shifting from investment commitments and macroeconomic stabilisation toward whether the country can translate its expanding copper project pipeline into sustained production growth. Official results confirmed Hichilema’s second-term victory on August 18, with around 60% of the vote. For mining investors, the result reduces uncertainty around the policy direction that has underpinned Zambia’s recent push to attract capital into copper and other strategic minerals. Zambia is targeting annual copper production of 3 million tonnes by 2031, nearly triple current output levels. The strategy depends on a combination of brownfield expansions, new mine developments and continued exploration, making execution over the next several years critical to determining whether the target can be achieved. The main constraint is increasingly infrastructure rather than geological potential. Mining companies have highlighted electricity availability as one of the most important risks to future production growth, with industry estimates indicating that roughly 2,000 MW of additional power capacity will be required to support the planned expansion of the mining sector. Climate risk adds further complexity. Zambia’s heavy dependence on hydropower leaves the system exposed to weak rainfall and reservoir inflows, while the developing 2026–27 El Niño raises the possibility of renewed pressure on electricity supply. Reuters notes that previous drought-related shortages constrained mining activity and remain an important risk to the country’s copper-growth outlook. From a copper-market perspective, Hichilema’s second term therefore represents a transition from policy continuity to delivery. Zambia has attracted renewed mining investment and built a substantial project pipeline, but reaching the 3 million-tonne target will depend on whether new mines and expansions can be brought online alongside sufficient power, infrastructure and financing.The next phase of Zambia’s copper story will therefore be measured less by announced investment and more by actual tonnes produced.

8 hours ago

14 hours ago

After Delivery, Sharp Drop in Copper Prices Curbs Suppliers' Shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]

14 hours ago

LME Copper Inventories Rise by More Than 10kt in Two Days, Copper Prices Touch $14,000 at Low Levels

LME copper inventories increased for two consecutive trading sessions. On August 14, LME copper inventories increased by 2,850 mt to 207,800 mt, and on August 17, inventories further increased by 15,700 mt to 223,600 mt. The cumulative increase over the two trading sessions was 18,600 mt, representing a growth rate of about 9.1%. In particular, warehouse inflows reached 17,500 mt on August 17, driving a sharp rebound in inventories that day. In terms of warrant structure, as of August 17, LME copper registered warrants increased to 123,100 mt, up by 20,000 mt from August 14. Registered warrants increased significantly and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined; as inventories increased, intraday copper prices touched a low of around $14,000/mt.

14 hours ago