[SMM Analysis] Ternary Cathode Precursor Market Enters Traditional Off-Season in February

This week, the cobalt sulphate market remained largely sluggish overall. However, supported by positive news from the upstream mining sector, market purchasing sentiment showed some recovery compared to the previous period. Supply side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, most smelters have successively arranged for production halts and maintenance. Combined with mining news strengthening bullish expectations for the future market, some enterprises have chosen to suspend quotations, while those maintaining quotations have raised their target prices to 96,000-98,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, due to concerns about a rapid price increase for cobalt sulphate after the holiday, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness has strengthened. It is reported that some companies' purchase intention prices for high-nickel cobalt sulphate have rebounded to 92,000 yuan/mt, while the purchase intention prices for low-nickel cobalt sulphate are in the range of 95,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Overall, as logistics gradually halt before the Chinese New Year, actual market transactions are expected to be quite limited next week, and cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain largely stable. After the holiday, as downstream enterprises gradually resume procurement, prices may regain an upward trend.

This week, the domestic refined cobalt market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices fluctuating at lows. Supply side, affected by the decline in futures prices, mainstream smelters' spot premiums were too high, leading them to lower ex-factory prices; traders were bullish on the market outlook, hedgers raised spot-futures price spread quotes, while some unilateral speculators temporarily suspended quotations to observe the market. Demand side, as prices gradually stabilized, purchase willingness among some end-users recovered, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated in the range of 415,000–420,000 yuan/mt. Fundamentally, this round of price correction in domestic refined cobalt was mainly driven by market capital fluctuations and the broad decline in other metal prices. In the short term, as cobalt intermediate products still cannot arrive at ports in large quantities, the tight supply pattern of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally changed, and refined cobalt prices are expected to remain supported on the downside.

The cobalt intermediate products market remained in a state of nominal pricing with thin trading this week, with prices holding steady in the range of $25.5–26.0/lb. News such as the US "stockpiling plan" and the acquisition of certain cobalt mining rights of overseas miners by US-funded enterprises heightened market concerns about cobalt raw material shortages in China in 2026, strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. However, as the year-end approaches, some smelters have entered the stage of clearing production lines and preparing for shutdowns, leading to a noticeable decline in purchase willingness and resulting in sluggish actual market transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products remaining distant, increased geopolitical risks are expected to exacerbate the structural tightness of domestic intermediate products, maintaining upward pressure on prices.