[SMM Weekly Review] The cobalt intermediate products market remained in a state of "quoted prices without actual transactions" this week, with prices stabilizing in the range of $25.5-$26.0/lb.

This week, the cobalt sulphate market remained largely sluggish overall. However, supported by positive news from the upstream mining sector, market purchasing sentiment showed some recovery compared to the previous period. Supply side, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, most smelters have successively arranged for production halts and maintenance. Combined with mining news strengthening bullish expectations for the future market, some enterprises have chosen to suspend quotations, while those maintaining quotations have raised their target prices to 96,000-98,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, due to concerns about a rapid price increase for cobalt sulphate after the holiday, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness has strengthened. It is reported that some companies' purchase intention prices for high-nickel cobalt sulphate have rebounded to 92,000 yuan/mt, while the purchase intention prices for low-nickel cobalt sulphate are in the range of 95,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Overall, as logistics gradually halt before the Chinese New Year, actual market transactions are expected to be quite limited next week, and cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain largely stable. After the holiday, as downstream enterprises gradually resume procurement, prices may regain an upward trend.

This week, the domestic refined cobalt market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices fluctuating at lows. Supply side, affected by the decline in futures prices, mainstream smelters' spot premiums were too high, leading them to lower ex-factory prices; traders were bullish on the market outlook, hedgers raised spot-futures price spread quotes, while some unilateral speculators temporarily suspended quotations to observe the market. Demand side, as prices gradually stabilized, purchase willingness among some end-users recovered, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated in the range of 415,000–420,000 yuan/mt. Fundamentally, this round of price correction in domestic refined cobalt was mainly driven by market capital fluctuations and the broad decline in other metal prices. In the short term, as cobalt intermediate products still cannot arrive at ports in large quantities, the tight supply pattern of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally changed, and refined cobalt prices are expected to remain supported on the downside.

According to data released by the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA) on February 5, Japan's imported auto sales (excluding Japanese producers) fell 12% YoY to 13,019 units in January. Battery EV sales increased 68% to 2,041 units, marking a return to growth after one month of decline. Mercedes-Benz sales dropped 13% to 3,031 units, ranking first; Volkswagen sales were 1,528 units, down 41%; BMW sales were 1,383 units, down 17%; BYD sales surged 3.4-fold to 180 units.