[SMM Analysis] Ternary Precursor Rush Export Growth Falls Short of Expectations

This week, the price of pCAM experienced a slight increase. In terms of raw materials, the price of cobalt sulfate remained temporarily stable, while the prices of nickel sulfate and manganese sulfate saw a slight uptick, collectively driving up the price of precursors. In the spot market, discount levels saw little change this week, remaining largely consistent with the previous week. Regarding long-term agreements, due to significant ongoing uncertainties in the future price trends of raw materials and a continued deadlock in commercial terms between upstream and downstream players, multiple manufacturers have decided to postpone signing long-term contracts. Instead, they are opting for monthly or quarterly short-term orders as an interim solution to enhance flexibility in responding to market fluctuations. Discounts corresponding to such short-term orders generally increased compared to last year, and processing fees for some leading manufacturers also rose.

In terms of demand, leading manufacturers have maintained a relatively high production pace recently, with a rush to export bringing some order growth. However, the scale of this growth has fallen short of earlier expectations. In contrast, order performance among small and medium-sized manufacturers has been relatively subdued, with some deciding to complete orders and enter a shutdown period for the Lunar New Year holiday ahead of the holiday. Looking ahead to February, due to fewer working days during the traditional off-season, coupled with production halts for maintenance at some manufacturers, overall output is expected to experience a relatively noticeable decline.