[SMM Analysis] MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Prices Rose This Week Amid Tight Supply-Demand Conditions and Policy Disruptions

This week, the MHP market was mainly influenced by tight supply-demand and policy disruptions, with payables supported at high levels. Demand side, downstream acceptance of high prices was low, and purchase willingness was weak; nickel salt and refined nickel plants sought alternative raw materials to maintain production. Supply side, new MHP projects were launched in Q1, but IUI approvals still require two months, preventing market inflow; spot market circulation remained limited, and short-term supply is expected to stay tight. Cobalt side, the cobalt intermediate products export pilot project promoted by the DRC government made substantial progress, but shipments still face waiting times after export; MHP remains an important supplementary raw material for cobalt intermediates, and cobalt payables hovered at highs. Overall, nickel payables and cobalt payables were supported at high levels, with weak short-term downward momentum.

High-grade nickel matte market, the tight supply-demand structure continued, with payables supported at highs; downstream purchase willingness was weak under high prices.

Key auxiliary material sulfur, sulfur (CIF Indonesia) prices held flat WoW. In January, international supply tightened due to maintenance and fire-related reductions, coupled with shipment delays affecting market sentiment. Buyers resisted high prices and made just-in-time procurement, resulting in limited transactions; however, driven by tight supply and supply-demand mismatch, sulfur prices were more likely to rise than fall.

Nickel prices, expectations for production cuts in Indonesian supply persisted this week, and nickel prices fluctuated at highs. Overall, nickel prices rose WoW. Combined with payables, nickel prices for MHP and high-grade nickel matte increased, and cobalt prices for MHP also rose.