The countdown to delivery sees the spread widening, and Shanghai spot copper remains firm [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jan 14, 2026 13:57

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to be the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2601 contract. During the day, some suppliers have already offered discounts of 200 yuan/mt against the next-month contract. It is anticipated that tomorrow's quotations against the next-month contract will start within the range of discounts of 200-100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are expected to remain strong tomorrow. However, spot premiums and discounts will be constrained by the widening price spread between futures contracts, leading suppliers to reduce their willingness to sell. Overall prices are expected to continue holding at high levels.

Today, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current SHFE copper 2601 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 280 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 140 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode prices were 103,500–104,330 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2601 contract opened higher, then dipped before rebounding. It opened at 103,150 yuan/mt, edged down to 102,900 yuan/mt, then staged a strong rebound, reaching highs above 104,850 yuan/mt twice during the rally, and closed at 104,290 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 440 yuan/mt to 330 yuan/mt, while the import loss for the current SHFE copper contract was between 1,940 and 2,070 yuan/mt.

At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt. High-quality copper was scarce, with few offers in the market. SX-EW copper was also in tight supply, quoted at a discount of 40–20 yuan/mt. Jinguan was initially quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, which later rose to 50 yuan/mt. Yuguang, Zhongtiaoshan, and Tiefeng traded at parity. Due to tight supply, JCC and Xiangguang were quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt. In the second trading period, Jinguan's prices edged up further due to strong sales, trading at a premium of 70 yuan/mt. Zijin and Zhongtiaoshan continued to trade at parity, while Jinchuan Group's ISA traded at a premium of 30 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, which is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2601 contract, some suppliers have already quoted discounts of 200 yuan/mt against the next-month contract intraday. Spot prices against the next-month contract are expected to start between a discount of 200 yuan/mt and a discount of 100 yuan/mt tomorrow. Spot premiums are anticipated to remain strong, though premiums and discounts may be constrained by the widening futures spread. Suppliers may reduce their willingness to sell, and overall prices are expected to stay high.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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