[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded sharply on January 12, as the US seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment increased by 50,000 in December.

SMM Nickel January 12 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) On January 9, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, which deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination.

(2) Non-farm Payroll Report—① US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, while the figures for October and November were revised down by a combined 76,000; the unemployment rate in December was recorded at 4.4%. In 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by 584,000. ② After the non-farm data release, the swap market indicated a zero probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in January.

Spot Market:

On January 12, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 141,200-152,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,850 yuan/mt, up 4,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) continued to strengthen in the morning session, driven by sector sentiment, closing the morning session at 142,470 yuan/mt, up 4.38%.

Nickel prices stopped falling and rebounded, with market bullish sentiment remaining strong. The current nickel prices show a stark contrast with the supply-demand imbalance; on one hand, inventory continues to increase significantly, while on the other hand, nickel prices remain firm. The market is still in a fierce battle between "strong expectations for Indonesian policies" and "the reality of high inventory and weak demand," which may lead to increased volatility in the future. The fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to remain between 128,000-145,000 yuan/mt.