Nickel prices surged significantly on December 30, 2025. The LME nickel three-month contract price soared to $16,700/mt, with a single-day increase exceeding 5%, hitting new phase highs and approaching the highest levels of 2025. In the spot market, the SMM #1 refined nickel price range for the day was 128,400–136,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/mt, up by 850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and a weakening US dollar, substantial speculative funds flowed into the commodity market. Recently, previously strong-performing metals such as silver, copper, and tin experienced significant corrections. In contrast, nickel, as a commodity with relatively small earlier gains and undervaluation, attracted funds flowing out of precious metals and other non-ferrous metals. Additionally, frequent supply disruptions in Indonesia further pushed up nickel prices, making its performance notably stronger than other non-ferrous metals.
In the short term, while policy expectations in Indonesia remain unclear, the strong trend driven by expectations and capital inflows may persist. However, global nickel inventory remains high, and as nickel prices rise, smelters may resume production, which could increase inventory pressure. If there is no substantial improvement in demand, nickel prices may be suppressed and face the risk of a significant correction.