Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid macroeconomic news disturbances and weak fundamentals, with the dampening effect of high prices on consumption continuing. [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes for December 29, 2025

Market Outlook: On the macro front, the US government announced it will impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027 but decided to suspend the measure for at least 18 months, which is seen as the latest signal to stabilize China-US relations. Meanwhile, news that Nvidia plans to deliver AI chip H200 to Chinese clients also brings some uncertainty. These factors collectively influence market risk appetite. Domestically, the tin market overall shows a weak supply-demand pattern. Supply side, most smelters' production in December is expected to remain relatively stable. Demand side, demand continues to be significantly suppressed by high prices, with downstream enterprises such as solder manufacturers generally adopting a cautious procurement approach. Demand in traditional sectors like consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. Although price fluctuations occasionally stimulate some enterprises to restock for rigid demand when prices are low, leading to sporadic recovery in night session transactions, the spot market turnover is mostly mediocre or even sluggish most of the time, exhibiting a characteristic of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Social inventory maintains a buildup trend. Overall, tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend under the combined influence of macro news disturbances and weak fundamentals. The suppressive effect of high prices on consumption persists. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in spot market transactions and inventory accumulation, operate cautiously, and guard against the risk of prices retreating after a rapid rise.