The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated upward during the night session, with high tin prices significantly suppressing downstream purchase willingness. [SMM Tin Morning News]

December 29, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated upward during the night session, rising after opening and climbing to 349,900 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly to close at 346,280 yuan/mt, up 2.46% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The inaugural meeting of the Humanoid Robot and Embodied AI Standardization Technical Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was held in Beijing. Establishing this committee is an important measure to implement the decisions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, leverage the guiding role of standards, enhance the supply of high-quality standards, and promote the maturation and application of humanoid robot and embodied AI technologies. The committee is primarily responsible for developing and revising industry standards in areas such as basic commonalities, key technologies, components, complete machines and systems, applications, and safety for humanoid robots and embodied AI, with its secretariat based at the China Institute of Electronics. (2) According to the Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce, to implement relevant national ministry requirements, solidly complete the final stages of the 2025 vehicle replacement program, and further release automotive consumption potential, Chongqing added 160 million yuan in vehicle replacement subsidy funds. Combined with the previously announced 25 million yuan, the total subsidy application amount reached 185 million yuan, with the application channel officially opening at 11:00 on December 27. It is understood that the subsidy application continues to follow the implementation principle of "total amount control, first come first served, until funds are exhausted," with the effective application period from 11:00 on December 27, 2025, to 24:00 on January 10, 2026. If the 185 million yuan subsidy quota is fully applied for earlier, the application channel will close simultaneously.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters' production is expected to remain relatively stable in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchasing is relatively cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Last week (December 22 to December 25), domestic tin prices showed a roller-coaster trend, rising first then falling. Early in the week, tin prices climbed to a three-and-a-half-year high of 349,200 yuan/mt. Later in the week, the market changed abruptly, with tin prices pulling back sharply to 332,250 yuan/mt by December 25, a single-day plunge of 6,000 yuan. This decline was mainly influenced by sluggish trading due to the Christmas holiday in overseas markets, some bulls choosing to take profits, and an accumulation of LME tin inventory alleviating short-term supply concerns. In the spot market, high tin prices severely suppressed downstream purchase willingness, leading to a stalemate of "price without market." Downstream enterprises, such as those in solder and electronics manufacturing, generally adopted a cautious strategy of purchasing as needed, resulting in very sluggish transactions.

[Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]