Overseas Demand Provides Support, China's Prebaked Anode Exports Continue Positive Trend [SMM Analysis]

SMM, December 25:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in November 2025 reached 227,800 mt, up 1.84% YoY and up 7.14% MoM. The average export price for prebaked anodes in November 2025 was approximately $798.98/mt, up 25.97% YoY and up 3.23% MoM. China's cumulative prebaked anode export volume for 2025 totaled 2.085 million mt, up 5.67% YoY.

From the perspective of domestic export regions, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan. Shandong's cumulative exports reached 1.5564 million mt, accounting for 75% of the total and ranking first; followed by Jiangsu with cumulative exports of 177,300 mt, accounting for 9% of the total; and then Hunan with cumulative exports of 158,800 mt, accounting for 8% of the total.

In terms of export destinations, the main countries for China's prebaked anode exports in 2025 were Malaysia, Canada, and Indonesia, accounting for about 50% of total exports. Exports to Malaysia totaled 460,500 mt, accounting for 22% of the total, down 9.78% YoY; exports to Canada were approximately 315,000 mt, accounting for 15% of total exports, up 20.27% YoY; exports to Indonesia were approximately 281,300 mt, accounting for 13% of total exports, up 66.98% YoY.

Based on November 2025 prebaked anode export data, export volume increased by over 15,000 mt compared to the previous month. Specifically, orders exported to Canada showed a significant increase, rising by over 18,000 mt. Additionally, orders to Germany, Oman, and the UAE also performed well, with increases each exceeding 3,000 mt, resulting in a total growth of over 31,000 mt. However, orders to Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, and Azerbaijan experienced significant declines, with decreases each exceeding 4,000 mt, leading to a total reduction of approximately 21,100 mt.

Price-wise, the upward trend in the average export price in November continued, with ample momentum for further increases. According to the SMM survey, supported by rising raw material prices in the domestic market, prebaked anode export order prices maintained an upward trend in December, with adjustments concentrated in the range of $40-50/mt. Overall, current prebaked anode export orders show strong resilience, and the price uptrend remains solid. For the full-year performance, prebaked anode export orders generally improved in 2025.

Based on SMM calculations, full-year exports are expected to reach around 2.28 million mt, continuing the growth trend. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by demand growth driven by continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to maintain growth, with the export increase expected to exceed 7%, and total exports climbing to around 2.45 million mt.