Christmas Holiday Thin Trading Under Pressure SHFE Tin Prices Retreat from Highs [SMM Tin Futures Brief]

On December 25, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2602 opened lower in the morning session and remained under pressure, ultimately closing at 335,880 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 1.18%. Futures experienced sharp fluctuations during the day, hitting a high of 341,200 yuan/mt and a low of 328,270 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 298,226 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,797 lots to 53,243 lots, indicating that some bulls chose to exit. Overseas, although the LME was closed for the Christmas holiday, LME tin fell 0.81% overnight to $42,490/mt, and the inventory rebound further eased supply concerns.

In terms of driving factors, today's decline in tin prices was mainly due to the combined impact of three pressures. First, macro front liquidity tightened as the Christmas holiday led to sluggish overseas trading; the suspension of Hong Kong stock market trading halted northbound capital flows, leaving the domestic market without external guidance. Year-end institutional position adjustments and profit-taking intentions intensified, with funds shifting from previously high-gaining varieties to defensive sectors. Second, demand side remained persistently weak, with orders in the traditional consumer electronics sector sluggish; solder enterprises only purchased as needed, and high prices significantly dampened restocking willingness. Incremental demand from emerging sectors like PV and AI servers was not enough to offset the decline in traditional areas. Third, industrial policy guidance prompted a rational return; the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), together with the solder branch, recently called for resisting speculative behavior, as high prices had triggered negative feedback from downstream enterprises, who were "afraid to accept orders."

Short-term outlook: the daily candlestick of the most-traded SHFE tin contract formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the key support level of 335,000 yuan/mt. The next support level is expected around 325,000 yuan/mt, and the short-term trend may continue with a resistant decline. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrowed range of 330,000-340,000 yuan/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar and whether downstream stockpiling demand before the Chinese New Year can trigger a staged rebound.