Nickel prices, both domestic and overseas, generally fluctuated downward throughout 2025, with the price center shifting significantly lower. LME nickel prices fell from an opening of $15,365/mt at the start of the year to a low of $13,865/mt. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract dropped from 124,500 yuan/mt to a low of 111,700 yuan/mt, hitting a nearly five-year low. Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand, the center of nickel prices in 2026 may shift further downward. If Indonesia substantially tightens nickel ore supply, LME nickel prices may temporarily break through $16,000/mt, but the medium and long-term oversupply situation is unlikely to change, and the high inventory pressure may take a longer time to digest. 

Against the backdrop of overcapacity, nickel sulphate producers generally maintained a strategy of producing based on sales this year. However, affected by tight raw material supply, SMM's nickel sulphate production deviated from the demand for nickel sulphate from ternary cathode precursors, resulting in a tight supply-demand pattern throughout the year. Reflected in prices, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate prices showed strong performance during the seasonal recovery in demand.

Nickel Prices Rose, Driving Up Spot Costs, and Nickel Salt Prices Rebounded This Week

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI Price Center Returns to 900, but Lacks Sustained Upward Momentum] December 25 (SMM) - The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI was 899 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 6 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous working day.

In 2025, the Indonesian government introduced a series of regulatory measures referred to by the industry as the "new mining policies." These policy packages not only touch upon core aspects such as mining business permits, approval of miners' work plans, and tax systems, but also include unprecedented strict penalties for illegal mining activities.

On December 24, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,113 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,400-27,500 yuan/mt, and the average price slightly increased compared to the previous day.

[SMM Daily Review: Transaction Center Continues to Rise, High-Grade NPI Prices Supported] Dec. 24 (SMM) – The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI was 893 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 4 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous working day.

Recent news from Bloomberg, citing sources within the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI), indicate that Indonesia could be steering toward a major turn in the global nickel supply chain. The government is reportedly weighing a plan to slash the approved nickel ore production quota, known as RKAB, for 2026 to around 250 million tons, which would represent a drop of roughly 34% compared to 2025 levels. If finalized, the move would signal a notable shift in policy from the world’s top nickel producer, with the clear intent of tightening supply and supporting nickel prices, which have remained under pressure. Whether such a reduction is practically feasible, however, remains an open question.