SHFE tin prices fluctuated downward during the night session, once falling below the 330,000 yuan mark. Low prices stimulated some enterprises to purchase and restock. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 25, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated downward during the night session, once falling below the 330,000 yuan mark. After a slight rebound towards the close, it settled at 332,520 yuan/mt, down 2.17% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The US government announced on the 23rd that it will impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, concluding the trade investigation into Chinese chips initiated by the previous Biden administration. US media analysis suggests that, although the US government claims China's practices in the chip industry "harm US interests," the final decision is to refrain from imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. Bloomberg reported that the postponement of new tariffs is the latest signal that the US government is seeking to consolidate the US-China "truce" agreement and stabilize bilateral relations. (2) Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that from December 1 to 21, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, up 1% YoY and 3% MoM, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 12.26 million units, up 18% YoY. Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by manufacturers from December 1 to 21 were 782,000 units, down 10% YoY and 12% MoM, with a penetration rate of 60.1%. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year totaled 14.538 million units, up 25% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot Market: Spot market transactions remained mediocre yesterday. Most traders reported that daily transactions were mostly in the range of 10-20 mt. However, trading was relatively active during the night session, as the price decline stimulated procurement interest among downstream enterprises.

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