[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Internal Review]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Strengthen, Alloy Market Follows Suit Positively] Spot market, SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 110 yuan/mt to 21,930 yuan/mt, while ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to 21,800 yuan/mt. The continued strength in aluminum prices has driven the secondary aluminum market to actively follow the upward trend and adjust prices. Currently, raw material supply is tightening, coupled with secondary aluminum enterprises entering the stockpiling phase, aluminum scrap demand is rising, and traders' sentiment to hold prices firm is evident, supporting secondary aluminum costs. However, demand side is marginally weakening, with overall market transactions performing sluggishly. Supply side, recent heavy pollution weather warnings have been activated in multiple regions, leading some secondary aluminum enterprises to face production restrictions or shutdowns, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. Overall, cost support and tightening supply jointly solidify the price bottom, but slowing demand and aluminum prices fluctuating at highs are suppressing downstream purchase willingness. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices Strengthen in Sync, Insufficient Fundamental Support Awaits Observation] Overall, from a macro perspective, the market needs to monitor the pace of interest rate hikes in Japan and its impact on the decline in aluminum prices. Domestically, fundamentals currently struggle to provide strong support for a sustained rise in aluminum prices, with end-use demand remaining weak and the proportion of liquid aluminum consequently declining. Subsequent attention should focus on changes in operating aluminum. Downstream processing enterprises continue to show weak sentiment in spot cargo procurement, and spot premiums continue to widen. With improved shipments from Xinjiang and an increase in transit inventory, social inventory is expected to accumulate this week, putting pressure on price support levels.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Surge Sharply, Secondary Aluminum Consumption Remains Supported] Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminum price edged up by 90 yuan/mt to 21,820 yuan/mt, while the ADC12 price was raised by 50 yuan/mt to 21,700 yuan/mt. As aluminum prices climbed, the secondary aluminum market actively adjusted prices. Currently, raw material supply is relatively tight, coupled with secondary aluminum enterprises entering a stockpiling cycle, aluminum scrap demand has increased, and traders show a strong willingness to hold prices firm, providing solid support for secondary aluminum costs. However, intensified aluminum price fluctuations have heightened downstream wait-and-see sentiment, with demand marginally weakening and market transactions performing sluggishly. Overall, cost support keeps the price floor stable, but slowing demand and fluctuating aluminum prices jointly suppress purchase willingness. The ADC12 price is expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

According to SMM statistics, as of December 19, 2025, domestic aluminum rod plants' days of inventories reached 4.37, down 0.45 WoW, with inventory continuing its downward trend. In terms of inventory ratio, the domestic aluminum rod plant inventory ratio was recorded at 45.28%, down 6.2% WoW.

Overall, although the rigid demand for carbon used in aluminum production and anode materials provides some support to the market, it is insufficient to offset the pressure from overall weak demand. Against the backdrop of continuously increasing supply, petroleum coke prices have entered a sustained downward trend. Based on the above supply-demand pattern, SMM expects petroleum coke prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. However, the market holds expectations for a recovery in January 2026, with the core driver being the concentrated release of stockpiling demand from downstream enterprises ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, which is expected to provide temporary support to the market.

On Wednesday, December 17, the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed that global refined nickel production in October 2025 was 326,400 mt, consumption was 297,200 mt, resulting in a supply surplus of 29,100 mt.  

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, Boosting Aluminum Market; Fundamentals Limit Upside Potential] Overall, domestic fundamentals currently struggle to provide strong support for sustained aluminum price increases. However, overseas production reduction risks and improving macro sentiment offer some support. SMM expects aluminum prices to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast aluminum alloy social inventory maintains weak destocking pattern; spot prices fluctuate at highs in the short term] On Thursday, the SMM A00 aluminum price saw a slight correction of 20 yuan/mt to 21,730 yuan/mt, while the ADC12 price held steady at 21,650 yuan/mt. Aluminum prices fluctuated rangebound, and quotations in the secondary aluminum market remained generally stable. Currently, raw material supply is tight, and aluminum scrap traders show strong willingness to hold prices firm, providing support for secondary aluminum costs. However, aluminum price fluctuations have intensified downstream wait-and-see sentiment, with demand marginally weakening and market transactions performing sluggish. It is expected that ADC12 prices will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, with limited room for change on either side. Downside support comes from the rigid cost floor due to tight aluminum scrap supply, while upside pressure stems from marginally weakening demand and downstream wait-and-see sentiment triggered by aluminum price fluctuations. Subsequent attention should be paid to raw material circulation, regional environmental protection policies, and changes in downstream orders.