[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebound Strongly on November 26 as Leaders of China and the United States Hold Direct Talks and Release Positive Signals

SMM Nickel November 26 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) On the evening of the 24th, the Chinese and US heads of state held a phone call. Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that since President Trump's second term, the two leaders have maintained regular interactions. It is understood that the call was initiated by the US side, and the atmosphere was positive, friendly, and constructive. Communication between the two heads of state on issues of mutual concern is crucial for the stable development of China-US relations.

(2) US President Trump indicated that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is "very close to being reached," but European leaders expressed skepticism. According to media reports, a US official revealed that the Ukrainian delegation has reached consensus with the US on the terms of a potential peace agreement. The official noted that although some details remain to be negotiated, Ukraine has agreed to the peace deal.

Spot Market:

On November 26, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 117,300-122,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 119,850 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,400-4,900 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) rose 1.10% in the night session. On the 26th, prices continued to hold up well in early trading, closing at 117,860 yuan/mt by the midday break, up 1.49%.

Both Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly sent dovish signals, expressing concerns about the labour market and supporting an interest rate cut in December. This significantly raised market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December to 70%-75%. Direct communication and goodwill signals from the Chinese and US leaders helped boost market confidence. Nickel prices are expected to experience short-term volatility with lingering long-term pressure. The price range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is projected at 114,000-118,000 yuan/mt.