SHFE tin prices fluctuated downward during the day, with short-term support referenced around 285,000 yuan [SMM Tin Midday Review]

At the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract settled at 288,950 yuan/mt, down 990 yuan from the previous day. Although SHFE tin rebounded slightly during the night session, it came under pressure and pulled back after the daytime opening, hitting a session high of 291,820 yuan/mt and a low of 288,480 yuan/mt. However, during today's Asian trading hours, the US dollar index held firmly above the 99.5 mark, and with the market awaiting delayed US economic data, LME tin maintained a fluctuating downward trend.

From a macro perspective, tin prices have recently been influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Hawkish signals from US Fed officials reiterating the need for cautious policy adjustments have cooled expectations for a December interest rate cut, while a stronger US dollar has put pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Meanwhile, after the US government shutdown ended, the release of a series of delayed economic data increased market uncertainty, prompting some bulls to take profits. Domestically, reasonably ample liquidity provided some support for tin prices, but end-use consumption showed a divergence characterized by "traditional sectors under pressure, emerging sectors providing a floor," with weak orders in traditional consumer electronics contrasting sharply with growing demand from emerging sectors such as AI servers and NEVs.

In the afternoon session, the market will focus on changes in macro sentiment and spot transaction activity. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate around the 290,000 yuan/mt level, with short-term support seen near 285,000 yuan. Although macro front pressures limit the room for a tin price rebound, rigid supply contraction and low inventory levels will continue to provide important support for prices.