Indonesia Grants Copper Concentrate Export Permit Again – Can It Quench Immediate Thirst? [SMM Analysis]

October 28, 2025 – A spokesperson from Indonesia's Ministry of Energy stated that Indonesia has agreed to issue a copper concentrate export permit to Amman Mineral International. This export quota is set at 480,000 metric tons of ore, valid for six months. Indonesia's copper concentrate primarily flows to China, Japan, and South Korea, with China having the largest demand. This resumption of exports from Indonesia has become a market focus, coinciding with the timing of long-term contract negotiations between smelters in China and Japan and Antofagasta. Can Indonesia's copper concentrate export permit reshape the flow of copper concentrate in Asia? Can it improve the supply and demand balance for copper concentrate in China? Can it support buyers, represented by Chinese smelters, in enhancing their bargaining power in the long-term contract negotiations?

Due to a sales agreement signed between Glencore and AMNT in 2024, which stipulates that AMNT will sell no less than 400,000 metric tons of copper concentrate to Glencore annually from 2024 to 2026, Glencore will act as the exclusive marketer for Batu Hijau copper concentrate. The Batu Hijau copper concentrate exported by AMNT will be sold by Glencore. According to SMM, some contracts signed between Glencore and specific smelters this year include provisions allowing Glencore to deliver Batu Hijau copper concentrate to these smelters. Meanwhile, some smelters indicated that several shipments of Batu Hijau concentrate have also entered the spot market. However, the attractiveness of Batu Hijau concentrate to smelters is significantly reduced due to its gold content of 10-20 grams/ton. In contrast, Japanese smelters, with their stronger precious metal recovery capabilities, have received offers for Batu Hijau copper concentrate. Therefore, for this round of Indonesian copper concentrate exports, the spot portion is flowing more to Japan, while deliveries to Chinese smelters are primarily under long-term contracts. The additional supply of copper concentrate from the spot portion is limited for China.

SMM forecasts China's copper concentrate imports to reach 30.37 million physical tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Copper concentrate exports from Indonesia to China are projected to be 1.31 million physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 61%.

While Indonesia's copper concentrate export policy may not impact the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance, it provides smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea with more raw material options and sources. This can undoubtedly improve the regional copper concentrate supply-demand balance in these three countries and provide smelters with more bargaining chips in their long-term contract negotiations. The year-end negotiations with Antofagasta are about to begin; Antofagasta's commercial team will travel to Japan next week to start the first round of talks with Japanese smelters and will begin long-term contract negotiations with Chinese smelters starting the Monday of the following week (during CESCO week).